"This day will forever be remembered as the day the American people took back control," said Donald Trump in his inauguration speech of his election victory, with which he practically gave a request for a complete reorganization of the country. Trump's Republicans secured a majority in the Senate and are very likely to retain their majority in the House of Representatives.
The big difference compared to Trump's victory in the 2016 election. is that this time he is much better prepared - says the head of the independent think tank Aspen Institute Germany Stormi-Annika Mildner. “Trump has understood that if there are disloyal people in his team, it can become problematic for him,” she says for DV. Therefore, it is now expected that he will surround himself only with his true supporters. Mildner expects a large-scale reshuffle of people in ministries and administration bodies, which probably means clearing out those who from 2016 to 2020 – that is, during Trump's first term, they managed to prevent the worst“.
Project 2025
Mildner expects the content of the strategic document “Project 2025”, published in the summer, to play an important role. Trump had officially distanced himself from the manifesto of the ultraconservative think tank “Heritage Foundation”. However, studies by American media show that at least some of his followers participated in the drafting of the document and after the change of government they could rise to influential positions.
What's more, during the election campaign, Donald Trump adopted key demands from the document: his views on migration policy and border protection coincided with those of the think tank. In the election campaign, Trump promised “the largest deportation operation in American history”. He also wants to significantly increase the exploitation of climate-damaging fossil fuels and change environmental regulations.
Reorganization in the authorities begins
Federal agencies, including the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), will be the lever to push these changes. The 32-page chapter devoted to the EPA in the ``Project 2025'' document was written by Mandy Gunasekara, the agency's chief of staff during Trump's first term as president, who is now in the running to become its next leader. Then the powers of the ERA were severely curtailed, and many of its staff were laid off – something the Biden administration has largely reversed. Newspaper “New York Times“ quoted Gunasekara as saying that Trump's second term would see the agency rebuilt.
In this regard, Mildner says: “You can use agencies that are part of the executive branch, such as the Environmental Protection Agency, to work in the public interest. Or you can shut them down by appointing bosses who simply say, “We're not going to do anything about this anymore.“ This is exactly what we can expect in climate policy. On the other hand, Trump could use the powers to introduce far-reaching regulations -- for example, related to illegal immigration and border security, or to promote fossil fuel extraction.
Eagerly awaited is also who Trump will nominate to lead the Justice Department, which Trump intends to use to prosecute political opponents. National Public Radio (NPR) counted more than 100 such threats during his campaign.
Like-minded in the judicial system
Not only prosecutors are being politicized - after a four-year hiatus, Trump's “Make America Great Again” will be able to appoint conservatives to senior judicial positions. That's because Republicans hold the Senate majority — at least until the midterm elections in late 2026. During Trump's first term, 234 justices were appointed - including three to the Supreme Court.
The Reuters news agency quoted George Washington University law professor John Collins: “During his first term, Trump transformed the federal judiciary. Now he has the opportunity to consolidate this vision for a whole generation.
Within the limits set by the constitution, Republicans will want to make significant changes to the state organization, Mildner says. However, they probably won't touch the constitution itself, because constitutional amendments are a complicated thing and could hurt themselves when one day the Republicans find themselves in opposition.
Control mechanisms remain
Although the White House, Congress and the Supreme Court are markedly conservative, other institutions, such as the media, will shoulder the control function known as "Checks and Balances". And Democratic-run states are bracing for tough political battles. For example, New York Governor Kathy Hochul addressed Trump directly with the warning: “If you try to harm New Yorkers or limit their rights, I will fight against your every move”.
Mildner recalls that the United States has proven its resilience to crises. “That is why I would by no means say that this is the end of American democracy,” she tells DV.
However, the division between the two camps will not be overcome under Trump, on the contrary: “In the next four years, the polarization may deepen even more”, she adds.
Author: David El