Against the background of the pessimistic assessments by supporters of political realism in the forecasts for the further course of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which are currently in short supply in the world information field, the vision of Jan Paris (Polish politician, sociologist and publicist, former defense minister) seems almost like a model of political idealism.
After all, he refers to such unpopular concepts as morality and justice, the principles of sovereign equality of states and law, respect for international law and order. In fact, however, there is nothing unrealistic in his words, unlike voices with proposals to achieve peace in Europe and the world by giving in to the aggressor at the expense of Ukraine (and then who is next in line?), notes Radio Svoboda.
Specifically, in an interview with wPolityce entitled "The Road to Peace. We need to put Russia in a situation where it realizes that there is no way out." Paris states:
"The West cannot accept that the aggressor is extorting and controlling the situation in Europe, and cannot allow Russia to restore its empire on the continent by conquest, as happened during the agreements of the Tehran and Yalta conferences" .
Western countries, the publicist emphasizes, help Ukraine for political and moral reasons. Moral - as a nation that has become a victim of aggression, political - because of the desire for world peace. Any potential aggressor must realize that war is not useful, therefore the West must stop Russian expansion in Europe, where all countries have the right to a sovereign existence.
The geopolitical status quo that emerged after the West won the Cold War must be preserved, so there is one condition for peace - Moscow must stop its policy of territorial revisionism.
What should be done?
Warning that there is no single miracle solution to end the war, the former defense secretary calls for practical action to put pressure on Russia.
To this end, President-elect Donald Trump, as the leader of the largest Western country, must demonstrate determination, after which the US can and should ask European countries to join forces for this purpose.
So:
1. The US must increase oil and gas production. This will lower hydrocarbon prices worldwide, affect the Russian state's revenues and make it more difficult to wage war.
2. We must provide Ukraine with long-range weapons, as well as an agreement to attack military facilities and infrastructure throughout Russian territory, at least in a 300-kilometer zone. Ukraine has the right to do this because Russia has been attacking targets across Ukraine for almost three years, so Kiev needs the ability to respond symmetrically.
3. The economic sanctions imposed on Russia must be strictly enforced. Companies that violate them should be penalized and excluded from the credit and insurance markets. CEOs of corporations that violate sanctions against Russia should be prosecuted like the leaders of drug cartels.
Currently, according to media reports citing Eurostat research, in early autumn Russia became a key gas exporter to the EU and restored its status as the main hydrocarbon supplier to the EU for the first time since spring 2022 . this way.
In September, European companies bought gas from Russia worth 1.4 billion. euro, which is a third more than a year earlier. Pipeline gas accounts for about 60% of deliveries, and liquefied natural gas - 40%. In September, the EU imported Russian liquefied natural gas for the maximum amount of 547.8 million. euro since April this year.
The main importers were France (€215.7 million), Belgium (€130.5 million) and the Netherlands (€93.5 million). And French President Emmanuel Macron shook hands with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov during the G20 summit held in Rio de Janeiro on November 18-19.
The EU must change its priorities
Even before the start of the negotiations, it is necessary to create favorable conditions for them, providing the EU with another tool to put pressure on Russia.
The European Commission must change its priorities and rethink its goals in the field of energy and migration in view of the real threat to security. Europe will not be safe if it does not increase its defense spending to at least 3% of GDP per year. That is why Trump is right to demand that, in exchange for the American military umbrella, European countries start taking their commitments to NATO seriously.
It cannot be like in recent years, when EU policy was de facto destructive to Western defense policy, for which the North Atlantic Alliance is responsible, observes Ian Paris.
Today, security, not green energy, should be a priority in the EU budget and in the budgets of European countries, he believes.
By the way, this is also emphasized by Professor Andrew Michta, director of the Strategic Initiative "Scowcroft" to the Atlantic Council, which sharply criticizes Europe's long-standing dependence on Russian energy resources. He gives the example of Germany, which even before the full-scale war received about 60% of its gas from Russia, and after the war closed the three nuclear reactors it still had.
Violation of the Budapest Memorandum is a pretext for supplying Ukraine with nuclear weapons
The Polish expert is convinced that the basis of the peace talks should be the very Budapest Memorandum of December 1994, in which the USA, Russia and Great Britain committed to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, in exchange for which it transferred the nuclear is Russia's potential.
If Russia continues to violate the 1994 provisions, it means the West may consider equipping Ukraine with the kind of weapons it has given up under that international agreement.
Western troops in Ukraine as a guarantee of peace
The deployment of Western troops to Ukraine to ensure peace along its eastern border is considered necessary by a former defense minister. A border that is not protected by the military will not be a peaceful border, but will only provoke a new armed conflict.
This should be a commitment above all of those Western countries that signed the Budapest memorandum, i.e. USA and UK.
Germany and France, as countries with the greatest economic potential and ambitions to play the role of leaders in the EU, are also obliged to maintain peace in Europe, including on the border with Russia.
Turkey, as the country with the largest ground army among the European members of NATO, should also participate in such a mission to stabilize the Ukrainian border.
At the same time, Jan Paris is unequivocally and firmly convinced that Poland itself should not send troops to Ukraine. According to him, this is not a matter of political posturing, but of rational deployment of Western forces on the eastern flank.
The Polish army is already responsible for protecting a large part of the EU's eastern borders, in particular with the Kaliningrad region, which is about 200 km long, it protects the Sulawesi corridor, which is about 100 km long and is crucial for the defense of the Baltic States. In addition, if necessary, it must defend the roughly 400-kilometer border with Belarus, which is actually part of Russian military space. Therefore, Poland already has serious military tasks in the border zone of the European Union with a total length of more than 700 km.
The expert emphasizes that the experience of international military missions also clearly shows that countries in the immediate neighborhood of the parties to the conflict should not participate in them. From the very first day of the war, the Republic of Poland participated in the transfer of large quantities of weapons and economic aid to Ukraine; almost all military and economic aid from the West has gone to Ukraine through Polish territory. Large and rich EU countries can offer Ukraine more than Poland.
The West needs a clear vision and plan
Andrew Michta, even more emphatic in his conclusions, agrees with him:
"The continent has almost half a billion people, a national income and a per capita income level that makes Russia look like a joke. And such a rich continent is incapable of building a military force to hold back this bandit? "If we continue to support Ukraine as we are doing now, we will fight to the last Ukrainian.
Every war must have a clear plan to achieve strategic goals. The US and its allies are still providing limited aid to Ukraine, which unfortunately could lead to its exhaustion. We can keep telling ourselves that Ukraine can't lose and Russia can't win - but that's not a vision of victory," Mikta convinces.
No one in military science plans war "for as long as necessary".
There must be a clearly realized vision of the final solution to the problem. One that preserves Ukraine's integrity when it comes to territory, state sovereignty, and paves the way for joining the structure of free democratic states. Without this, any agreement will be a loss for Ukraine.
While stressing that EU countries can and should take greater responsibility, cost and initiative for security in their part of the world, as President Trump will encourage, he also warns that so-called "strategic autonomy" ; of Europe without the USA is an illusion.
Currently, no European country can provide nuclear defense or logistical support at the level of the US. True autonomy is possible only through bold leadership and investment in real military capabilities, not through abstract discussions about the percentage of GDP spent on defense.
Action is needed and the West is in a good position
It seems that the Polish and American analysts are right. All eyes from Europe onwards are on the US, waiting to see what else President Biden can do and what Trump will say after taking office in January 2025.
Lacky reactions such as European Commission spokesman Peter Stano's finding of yet another escalation during a Brussels briefing in response to Russia's use of an intercontinental ballistic missile in its Nov. 21 attack on Ukraine only encourage the Kremlin to issue new threats to the West itself .
This happens according to the spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry Zakharova to Poland, as Putin openly blackmails the USA and the UK.
"We believe we have the right to use our weapons against the military sites of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our sites," Putin said.
It seems that the "first phase of the war with the West," as Andrew Michta called it at the beginning of the summer of this year, is rapidly moving into the second or third phase.
Although the West itself continues not to recognize this, having all the collective possibilities, as the Ukrainian political scientist and officer of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Mikhail Basarab aptly put it, "quietly and coolly, strictly within the framework of international law, to begin dismantling the parts of this marasmatic construction called the Russian Federation".
Anatoly Kurnosov - Radio Svoboda
Translation: Nick Iliev