Poland, which is increasingly ambitious on the European stage, will take over the rotating EU presidency from Hungary - a change welcomed with relief by Brussels.
For 6 months, Warsaw must play much more as a collective player than Budapest to try to make progress on European files.
Starting with support for Ukraine, of which Poland is one of the most ardent defenders, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban irritated Brussels by visiting Moscow in July to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin and multiplying initiatives without coordinating with other European and regional leaders. EU.
The Hungarian presidency of the EU has proven to be quite frustrating for other European countries, summarizes Guntram Wolf from the Brussels-based think tank “Brugel“.
“Everyone is eager to have a new beginning“, adds a European diplomat on the subject, who wished to remain anonymous.
The Polish presidency begins in the uncertain context of Donald Trump's coming to power on January 20 in the United States. Europeans fear that the United States will reduce or even abandon its commitment to Ukraine. They also fear trade tensions with the United States.
“We are in a period of extreme challenges. "The war in Ukraine is raging right next to us," stressed Poland's permanent representative to the EU, Agnieszka Bartol.
During the six months of the rotating presidency, Poland's main priority will be the security of Europe, be it military, economic or energy. The Polish government also intends to invest efforts in the fight against illegal migration. It expects a proposal from the EC to facilitate the expulsion of illegal migrants who have been denied asylum before the EU summit in March.
"This will very quickly become an item on the agenda", says Bartol, who believes that the Asylum and Migration Pact, adopted by the EU in May 2024, is not sufficient in this regard. Poland then voted against the Pact.
On the migration issue, Tusk's government received a green light from the EC on December 11, allowing it to exceptionally restrict asylum in certain cases when there are suspicions that migration is being used as a political tool by Russia. Poland has accused Russia and Belarus of using the influx of migrants at its border to destabilize the region.
The Clean Industry Pact, which the European Commission is preparing, will be presented during Poland's rotating presidency at the end of February.
Poland produces lithium batteries for electric vehicles, becoming a European leader in this area.
“Poland is well-placed to use its presidency to reach an agreement on a solid EU investment program in clean technologies,“ says Neil Makaroff, a representative of the think tank “Strategic Perspectives“.
However, the country with a population of nearly 37 million people remains heavily dependent on coal, which was the basis of 63 percent of electricity production in 2023. But Poland is trying to make a shift towards renewable energy, linked to its plan to put its first nuclear power plant into operation in 2030.
On the climate front, Europeans are due to negotiate this year on the target proposed by the European Commission to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90 percent by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. But discussions have only just begun. NGOs fear that the Polish presidency will not be enthusiastic enough on the issue and that it will have to wait until the handover to Denmark on July 1.
The EU presidency is held for six months by EU member states on a rotating basis. It has a symbolic dimension, but it also allows for a boost on various issues of importance to the 27.
But Poland's ambitions could be limited by national elections. There will be a presidential vote in Poland in 2025, which could prompt Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to act cautiously on the European stage.
"This could hamper the efforts of the Polish presidency, because coexistence in Poland between the president and the prime minister is very difficult", says a European diplomat. "On big issues, they will always have the presidential election in Poland in mind", he says.
In Poland, there is a delicate coexistence between Donald Tusk's pro-European government and conservative President Andrzej Duda, close to the Polish nationalist Law and Justice party. Duda imposes a presidential veto on most of Tusk's government's legislative initiatives.
Translated from French: Gabriela Golemanska, BTA