The peaceful transfer of presidential power in the United States has been the political norm since the end of George Washington's second term 228 years ago. Despite the bloody Civil War in the 1860s, this tradition has become a symbol of stability, establishing the United States as the oldest democracy in the modern world.
As the country's international influence has grown, especially after the two world wars in the 20th century, the American system of government has become a model for other countries.
However, the status and role of the United States in the world will change with Donald Trump's second inauguration. This event comes four years after his attempt to overturn the results of a free and fair election.
Trump has made it clear that his goal is not simply to change countries or policies in Washington.
His real task is to transform, as much as possible, the American system from a democracy into a system run by the rich and powerful, which former President Joe Biden rightly called an “oligarchy” in his farewell address.
The contours of an authoritarian oligarchy are already visible. The close alliance between Trump, who will soon once again become the most powerful man in the world, and Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, is a clear signal of this change.
Musk has donated over $200 million dollars to Trump's campaign, an investment that has already paid off handsomely.
Both believe that the rich and powerful should rule, and that their prerogatives should override the rule of law and constitutional government. They reject the pursuit of equality and seek a complete merger of economic and political power, replacing democracy with dynasties.
Trump's subservience to Silicon Valley was expected. While other tech titans may not be willing to hand over control of the White House to Musk, they clearly share a vision of an oligarchic future.
For example, Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta, co-hosted Trump’s inauguration party with billionaire Republican donors.
If Trump succeeds in making this change, democracy around the world will be at risk.
After all, the United States has historically been a bastion of democracy, thanks to its political, military, and economic clout. While it has never been a perfect exemplar of democratic values, the United States has promoted and defended them on the international stage more consistently than any other country. But perhaps those days are over.
Even if Europe avoids a split with the new oligarchs—a difficult task, given the fragility of the European Union in the face of resurgent nationalism—it is unlikely to replace the United States.
What can Europeans realistically do if the neo-imperialist Trump administration forces Denmark to hand over Greenland? The sober answer, as we all know, is very little.
Europeans never expected anything good from a new Trump presidency. But few here, including me, predicted that Trump would turn to imperialism and revisionist territorial claims before taking office, backed by threats of violence against a NATO ally. This development has surpassed even my most pessimistic expectations. It was bad enough that Europe would be forced to confront Russia’s neo-imperialist aggression alone. Now it will be squeezed by neo-imperialist forces on both sides.
Trump's statements on Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal (he has also suggested military intervention in Mexico) at least make it clear where America stands. No one else can have any illusions about what Trump's return to power means.
What else is needed for Europeans to realize the implications of the current geopolitical changes?
The era of brute force politics has just arrived. From now on, world affairs will be governed by dominant superpowers, not by rules, norms, or traditions.
If Europe continues to cling to its preferred concept of sovereign nation-states, it will be condemned to the status of a mediocre power - or worse.
Already facing economic and technological decline, its aging society will be completely dependent on external forces that do not protect its interests.
Europe will no longer see itself as a global power capable of determining its own destiny.
Trump and Russian President Putin are forcing old Europe to decide here and now what its future will look like.
Europe has the technological skills, expertise and financial resources to defend its interests in the 21st century. But this is not enough to make up for what Europe lacks most: the political will to act as a united force on the world stage.
If Europeans want to secure their future, they can no longer just talk about it. They must act.
Joschka Fischer - former Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister of Germany (1998-2005)
translation: Nick Iliev