Turkey has never been a democratically governed country in the classical sense of the word - coups against elected governments have occurred more than once. Now, however, for the first time in Turkish history, the government itself has initiated a coup against the opposition, writes Bülent Mumay in the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" (FAZ). The author points out that in the 23rd year of his rule, Erdogan has neutralized his biggest opponent, Ekrem Imamoglu - in a way that is more familiar to us from Latin American countries.
By circumventing the law and with the assistance of his faithful justice, the president has taken a dangerous step with the aim of prolonging his political life, FAZ comments. And now, having realized that he will not be able to defeat his political opponent Imamoglu, he has made sure that he is arrested. The reasons for this measure, with which Erdogan is harming Turkish democracy no less than previous coups d'état, are found in a phrase uttered by him in the past: “He who rules Istanbul, rules Turkey”.
Bulent Mumay explains that it is not about the position itself - Istanbul is not only the city with the largest population in Turkey, but also has the largest budget, respectively, it has the best prospects of governing the entire country. The author recalls how Erdogan tried unsuccessfully to prevent Imamoglu from becoming mayor of Istanbul after his victory in the 2019 and 2024 elections and considers the president's fears that he will be defeated in the next vote to be justified.
The goal is to prevent Imamoglu from running
The next regular presidential election is not until 2028, but it is expected to be announced early. And with each subsequent poll, Imamoglu looks more and more like a clear winner, the FAC points out. To prevent this, Erdogan has already filed five cases against Imamoglu, which could provide him with 25 years in prison. And if Imamoglu loses even one of them, he will go to prison for two or more years and lose the right to run.
However, Erdogan decided to bet on an even safer bet - to run for president in Turkey, you must have completed higher education. Imamoglu has a degree, but exactly five days before the internal party vote, in which he planned to present himself as the only candidate, he was stripped of his academic title thirty-one years after receiving it, writes Bülent Mumay in FAC.
But even that doesn't seem to be enough for Erdogan - in order to completely remove Imamoglu from the race, the president also wants to take Istanbul away from the opposition Republican People's Party. Therefore, the day after Imamoglu was stripped of his degree, he was arrested along with about a hundred other people. The charges: corruption and collaboration with the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party PKK. And all this at a time when Erdogan himself is negotiating with the PKK.
As the FAC explains, the accusations against Imamoglu of supporting terrorism have a very simple reason. The president can remove him and replace him with a mayor he likes only if he is investigated for suspected links to terrorism - if the accusations are not so serious, the Republican People's Party can nominate another of its members in his place.
Erdogan is encouraged by global processes
President Erdogan, of course, knows that any action against Imamoglu will provoke strong reactions not only in Istanbul, but throughout Turkey. With his coup on March 19, Erdogan announced to the whole world that even under the conditions of an authoritarian regime, he would not be able to win the elections.
However, all this also hints at something even more dangerous - this is how the foundations of a regime are being laid in which it is no longer possible to change power through elections, Mumaj writes further. At a time when democracy around the world is in decline, when human rights and the rule of law are for various reasons less and less recognized as valid criteria in the West, and when the US is saying goodbye to its claims to a “free world” with the re-election of Donald Trump, Erdogan must have come to the conclusion that no force can stop him, FAZ comments.
The German publication also attempts to predict what will happen from now on. From prison, Imamoglu sent the message through his lawyers: “He who tramples on the will of the people with lies and deceit will receive a corresponding response from the people”. This is true - if Imamoglu's candidacy is firmly blocked, his party will most likely nominate another candidate in his place. If elections are held at all.
FAC also addresses the question of whether the Turkish opposition will be able to organize a protest movement after Imamoglu's arrest. The publication points out that the coming Sunday, when mass demonstrations have been called, will be decisive in this regard. On the same day, Imamoglu's party - the Republican People's Party - called on its 1.7 million members to go to the polls and vote for the nomination of the mayor of Istanbul as a presidential candidate. “On Sunday, thousands, tens of thousands, millions of people will take to the streets. I invite 86 million to join the fight,” said party leader Özgür Özel. “This could be the last chance for our democracy”, a woman who plans to participate in the protests, even though her colleagues have warned her not to, told the German publication.
Erdogan on Putin's path?
FAC writes that this Sunday will be important for another reason - the police can hold Imamoglu for no more than four days, which will expire then. And if he is not released, a new escalation will follow. The German publication notes that in the meantime, there is talk in Istanbul about the Trump factor, which encouraged Erdogan to remove his most promising opponent from his path.
The American publication "Foreign Affairs" compares Erdogan to Putin: "If he manages to ensure that Imamoglu is eliminated from the next presidential election, Erdogan will achieve what Putin achieved long ago - in Russia, elections are just a formality. There are no real opponents - only those who maintain the illusion of an election are allowed, and the election results are never disputed. The path that the Turkish leader is taking is strikingly similar to the one that Vladimir Putin took in Russia, summarizes “Foreign Affairs”.
There is another important thing for Erdogan - if he prevails over Imamoglu, he will not only secure elections without him as an opponent, but he will also regain Istanbul - the loss of the metropolis affected the Turkish president not only politically, but also financially, the American publication also recalls.