The US still keeps atomic bombs on the territory of Germany. But Trump is turning his back on Europe and this is weakening the nuclear deterrent. Can France and Britain help? In Europe, they are the only ones with nuclear weapons.
For decades, Germany has been protected under the US nuclear umbrella. Washington keeps up to 20 atomic bombs on the territory of the Federal Republic. The codes for them are in the hands of the US president. However, the Bundeswehr provides the aircraft that can carry them to their target. "Nuclear weapon sharing" - that's what NATO calls this jointly organized deterrence with American weapons, in which other European countries also participate.
Security experts do not expect the United States to withdraw its nuclear weapons from Europe in the near future. "I don't think that's a scenario that will happen soon, because NATO and the sharing of nuclear weapons are of great strategic importance to the United States for various reasons," says Sascha Hach of the Frankfurt Institute for Peace Research. "But it cannot be ruled out," he adds. One of the strategic advantages for the United States of having nuclear weapons in Europe is the ability to respond to Russian aggression.
Germany has no right to its own nuclear weapons
But even if American nuclear bombs remain in Europe, the doubts that Donald Trump has raised about American guarantees in NATO are damaging. They undermine the credibility of nuclear deterrence. Therefore, Germany, which has always relied on the United States, wants to take a new direction in its security policy and plans to rapidly rearm its army.
The nuclear umbrella is also a subject of debate. Can it still be seen as a deterrent against the large nuclear arsenal of Russia, which has more than 5,500 warheads, under these circumstances? Germany does not have the right to possess its own nuclear weapons, this is written into the "Two Plus Four" treaty on the unification of the country in 1990.
In Europe, only Britain and France have their own nuclear weapons. British nuclear weapons are closely linked to the United States and would be at the disposal of NATO in the event of a conflict. In France, the situation is different - the country attaches great importance to the independence of its nuclear forces. They are not subordinate to NATO's joint command structures.
France has about 290 nuclear warheads, which can be launched from nuclear submarines or from "Rafale" fighter jets. The nuclear forces, also known as the Force de frappe, are designed to protect the country's "vital interests". According to the French, they also strengthen Europe's security by making it difficult for potential adversaries.
What could cooperation with France look like in this regard? The first step in this direction is talks on the subject, say those in Paris. Information about the handling of nuclear weapons and their strategic planning is sensitive. France has decades of experience in this area - unlike Germany.
Joint exercises between the German and French air forces are also possible, says French security expert Camille Grand of the European Council on Foreign Policy. Despite media speculation, there is no discussion of the deployment of French nuclear fighters or other nuclear infrastructure in Germany.
"It is a mistake to assume that French nuclear guarantees will be similar to US nuclear guarantees", Grand stressed in an interview with DW. The French government has always made it clear that it will not give up its independence in making decisions about the use of its nuclear weapons. "Whatever happens, the decision has been and will always be in the hands of the President of the Republic, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces", Emmanuel Macron also stressed in his speech to the nation in early March.
The US still remains indispensable for NATO
But not only the French, but also the British nuclear forces are strongly oriented towards national defense. Great Britain is the only nuclear power that has only one type of nuclear weapon. The country's nuclear deterrent is based on four nuclear submarines stationed off the west coast of Scotland.
All this limits the possibilities of putting these weapons at the service of a more broadly organized European nuclear defense in the near future. A stronger strategic dialogue or "a political declaration that the French and British nuclear arsenals will also be used to defend European territory in emergency situations" is possible, says Sacha Hach. "But I think it is unrealistic for the nuclear forces of France and Britain to develop in such a way that they are adapted to European defense."
Friedrich Merz emphasizes that the goal is not to replace American nuclear weapons in Europe, but to supplement them. The United States is currently considered indispensable in NATO not only because of its nuclear arsenal, but also because of other defense capabilities that only it has. These include direct contacts with Russian command centers and systems for reporting ballistic missile launches. All this helps to avoid unforeseen escalations.
"When we currently discuss in Europe how to act without the United States, we always focus on whether we have enough bombs", says the expert from the Institute for the Study of Peace. This ignores the fact that without the United States, other important defense mechanisms could be lost, such as direct military contacts with the enemy country. "I would say that it is in Europe's interest to create such structures and mechanisms that we can control", summarizes Hach.