This is an old Soviet method that Vladimir Putin has mastered to perfection: waving the flag of peace while waging war - Pretending to want to negotiate while striking at Ukraine. Lies are the only strategy that another world leader also practices without restraint - Donald Trump, a follower of parallel realities and alternative truths. The two are a perfect match, and the Kremlin is taking full advantage of Trump's naivety.
This is what Vera Granzeva, a Russian political scientist who has been living in exile in France since 2020 and teaches at the Sciences Po Paris Institute for Political Studies, said in an interview with the French newspaper L'Express.
L'EXPRESS: Putin continues to claim that he is ready to "negotiate" to end the war in Ukraine. What is his goal? To buy time?
VERA GRANTSEVA: When analyzing Putin's strategy, two parameters must be taken into account. First, communication for him is not a means of explanation or finding a solution, but a weapon designed to deceive. He learned this in the school of the KGB. And second, words have no value in his eyes. Only actions matter - and this is what Westerners fail to understand because they live in a different world. When listening to Putin, remember that his words are worthless. Watch what he does, not what he says.
Let us now analyze Putin's attempts to "negotiate" in the light of these two rules. Why does he claim to want negotiations? First, because pressure from the United States and the Global South is growing. During his visit to Moscow to celebrate Victory Day on May 9, Xi Jinping called for a "fair, lasting and binding peace agreement accepted by all parties concerned". A few days later, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva followed suit, saying he was ready to persuade Putin to negotiate. And in Washington, Donald Trump is growing increasingly impatient.
Vladimir Putin sees in the White House host an opportunity to win this war. According to him, Trump can behave in two ways, and both are win-win. First scenario: Moscow wins Trump over to its side, and Trump puts pressure on Ukraine and Europe to cede occupied territories to Russia. This is the way to win this war politically, because on the military front, Russian troops are not achieving success. Second scenario: the negotiations fail, which will dash Donald Trump's hopes. Instead of thinking about the reasons for this failure, he will simply be disappointed and upset and will withdraw from these negotiations and from the management of this war in general. This option is also advantageous for Putin, because the Russian president believes that by withdrawing from these negotiations, Trump will immediately stop aid to Ukraine.
Today, American support represents only 20% of international aid to Kiev, but it includes key elements for the front, such as the Patriot air defense systems. Putin is convinced that without American help, Ukraine will collapse militarily and morally. In this context, he accepted the idea of negotiations - but in no case compromises. Moreover, during the meeting of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul, we saw that the Russians remained on the same maximalist terms announced in 2022. Moreover, they raised the stakes by threatening to annex other Ukrainian regions.
L'EXPRESS: How should one act against the backdrop of Putin's constant bluffing?
V. GRANTSEV: Putin understands only force, he does not respect the very idea of compromise or negotiations, he perceives them as signs of weakness. That is why all the attempts of Western leaders on the eve of the war - when Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz went to Moscow - were counterproductive. Putin interpreted them as a green light to start the war. He saw confirmation of his vision of Europe: Europe is weak and unable to resist him. How to use force against Putin? The shortest and most effective way is military. If NATO had participated in this war from the very beginning, it would have lasted three days, because we saw the weaknesses of the Russian army. But this option is not acceptable for today's Europe for a number of reasons, including the risk of nuclear escalation.
What is left then? The economic path, with sanctions, accompanied by harsh speeches warning Russia that as long as this war continues, it will be isolated on the international stage. This path is slower and will not yield results in the short term. In the medium term, the Russian economy suffers, and in the long term this could have consequences. If the sanctions were insignificant, the Kremlin would not seek their lifting... But it will never publicly acknowledge the consequences of these sanctions. When his ship sinks and only his hand remains above the surface, Putin will continue to shout that everything is fine and that the sanctions are not effective!
Putin is at a dead end. But there are other people in Russia who are listening. For three years, the Kremlin's strategy has been to tell the Russian elite and people: wait, don't worry, this won't last long, the Europeans are weak and unable to keep their word, wait a little longer. If Europe tightens sanctions, it will sow doubt among these political elites. Maybe not Putin's inner circle, the war criminals, who know that there is no way out for them. On the other hand, the second circle, who will certainly one day be in power - because time is against Putin, he will grow old and gradually a new generation will come to power - is watching the situation develop. They wonder how all this will end: "What kind of Russia will our children live in?"
In my opinion, this is exactly what is missing from the European strategy today: sending a message to the future elites in Russia. Instead of telling everyone: "You are all responsible for this war, you will pay for it for generations", leave the door open for this new generation to tell them that if they have a peace plan for Russia, if they engage within the framework of international law and recognize the sovereignty of their neighbors, they can offer a different future for their country.
There is no such message and, even worse, today there is rather a message that unites the elites around Putin, including the younger generations who say: "The Europeans will hate us for centuries". It is possible to formulate a message that will further divide the Russian elite. Let's show them that what Putin repeats all day long - that there is no other solution but total war with Europe - is completely false.
L'EXPRESS: While pretending to want to negotiate, Putin continues to destroy Ukraine and rearm. Under the guise of negotiations, is he preparing for the next war?
V. GRANTSEVA: War has become the raison d'être of Putin's regime, and I don't see how he can back down today after everything he said against Europe and the "collective West". How can he turn back time and peacefully coexist with the West?
Today's Putin is very different from the Putin of 2012. Today he is a man of war. He is transforming Russian society, creating a militant minority, strongly motivated by this war against the West and by the idea of revenge for the collapse of the USSR. He is also waging a hybrid war in Europe. He is capable of carrying out other "special military operations" against other European targets. But for this to happen, he will first have to succeed in freezing the front in Ukraine in a "Minsk 3" type agreement (The first Minsk agreements were agreements to end hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, signed in 2014 and 2015).
Today, the Russian army is failing in Ukraine. Fighting a war on two fronts seems unlikely to me. On the other hand, if it manages to freeze the front and free up part of its army, it can look for targets to the west of Russia.
This will also depend on NATO's behavior. Because if Russia attacks Finland or the Baltic states, theoretically this could provoke a war between it and NATO. Today, such a scenario seems unimaginable. We tell ourselves that Putin will never attack NATO. I would say that it is if the transatlantic organization remains an authoritative, cohesive and reliable force. When one reads the Russian press today, there is a slight disapproval in it about the weakened authority of NATO due to the withdrawal of the Americans. The media talks a lot about the withdrawal of American troops from Europe. This is a green light for Putin, who does not believe in European resistance.
L'EXPRESS: How do you interpret the satellite images showing the construction of warehouses and tents for the Russian army on the Finnish border?
V. GRANTSEVA: Putin's strategy remains total war against Europe. Although he is clearly not in a position to start a second war today, it is quite possible that he is in a preparation phase, accumulating equipment and troops near the border, while simultaneously sowing fear in Finland in response to the country's alleged betrayal over its NATO membership.
L'EXPRESS: How do you imagine 2025? The most optimistic hoped for a lull on the Ukrainian front, but we are still far from such...
V. GRANTSEV: The numerous tectonic shifts in world geopolitics do not seem to affect Putin’s determination to continue his war, which has become his regime’s life insurance. So far, all efforts by Trump, a naive and incompetent president, to hold negotiations have yielded zero results. Putin has no interest in a ceasefire at this stage. He needs at least a small victory.
If he can no longer continue this war and needs a break to restore his resources and troops, he will need this small victory at all costs to explain to his people why he dragged Russia into this war, why so many people died on the front, why Russia is isolated, under sanctions. That is why there is such pressure in Donbas today, because in my opinion, this is Putin’s goal in 2025: to seize this region completely. His problem is that he cannot do it. Three years after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he controls about 70% of Donbas. If he manages to take control of the entire region, I do not exclude that he will seek to sign the "Minsk 3" agreements with Ukraine.