After a series of controversial arrests in Russia and Azerbaijan, relations between the two countries are more strained than ever. Russia's influence in the Caucasus continues to weaken.
A police operation has escalated into a diplomatic crisis: The dispute between Russia and Azerbaijan has escalated in just a few days, seriously worsening already tense relations. It began at the end of June with a controversial police operation in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg. Several men of Azerbaijani origin were arrested as part of an investigation into criminal cases from previous years. They are accused of murder and attacks. In their detention, Russian special forces apparently acted more harshly, as two of those arrested died after the controversial police operation.
Baku reacted swiftly: Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry expressed a strong protest against the "unacceptable violence" by Russian security forces. In protest, all cultural events related to Russia were canceled in the country, and state television condemned Moscow's "imperial behavior" towards the countries of the former Soviet Union in prime time.
Azerbaijani authorities arrested two Russian employees at the office of the Russian state media agency "Sputnik Azerbaijan". According to local media, the two were employees of the Russian secret service FSB.
Moscow downplayed the incident
The Kremlin reacted cautiously. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed regret for Baku's decision and stressed that what happened in Yekaterinburg "cannot be a reason for such a reaction." Moscow's Foreign Ministry stressed that the dead and those detained were ethnic Azerbaijanis with Russian passports.
A day later, Azerbaijani judicial authorities took further action and arrested more Russian citizens in Baku. The charges against them: drug smuggling and participation in an organized criminal group. Footage from the courtroom showed that some of the arrested had signs of violence. Information appeared on social networks that the detainees were programmers and tourists from Yekaterinburg.
The spiral of mutual accusations continued: more citizens of Azerbaijan were arrested in the Russian cities of Yekaterinburg and Voronezh. Observers described the incident as a new serious test for relations between the two countries after the crash of the Azerbaijani plane at the end of 2024.
After the crash - a turning point in bilateral relations
On December 25, 2024, an Azerbaijani plane with five crew members and 62 passengers on board was hit by a Russian surface-to-air missile. The tragedy occurred over Grozny, where Russian air defenses were active at the time. After an unsuccessful attempt at an emergency landing, the plane crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau. 38 people died.
Azerbaijani political scientist and conflict researcher Arif Yunusov believes that the escalation of rhetoric in the media after the crash is not accidental. He is convinced that information policy in both Russia and Azerbaijan is coordinated by state bodies and that bilateral relations are largely influenced by the personal feelings of the two heads of state.
Aliyev's anger at Putin
For Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, the plane crash has a personal dimension, Yunusov notes. At the time of the incident, the presidential plane was also in the skies over Russia and could theoretically have become a target for Russian air defense missiles. The first official to apologize to Azerbaijanis for the incident was Chechen ruler Ramzan Kadyrov, not Russian President Vladimir Putin. This irritated President Ilham Aliyev himself, who sharply criticized others for calling him - although he did not name Kadyrov. If the Kremlin chief had called Aliyev first, this entire public confrontation could have been avoided, Yunusov believes.
Independent Caucasus expert Kirill Krivosheev agrees. "Putin only formally apologized to Aliyev, and it was obvious that Aliyev was hardly happy with that," he told DW. However, he believes that the recent events in Yekaterinburg were hardly initiated by the Kremlin. Russian prosecutors have their own logic: "They view every diaspora, including the Azerbaijani community, as an organized crime group. This is a trend that is widespread among part of the Russian elite." The resulting diplomatic crisis is more of a collateral damage.
According to Krivosheev, official Baku is using the aggravation of the situation to strengthen its position on the international stage: "It is important for Aliyev to appear as a sovereign leader who can say "no" to both Russia and the West".
Azerbaijan's increased self-confidence
Baku has ceased to perceive Moscow as an external force capable of dictating the rules in the Caucasus, Azerbaijani political scientist and MP Rasim Musabekov also said in an interview with DW. Azerbaijan is already developing its own energy and military infrastructure, which irritates the Kremlin. That is why Russia's media rhetoric towards Azerbaijan has intensified significantly. Now Moscow is trying to compensate for the loss of influence in the region by putting pressure on the Azerbaijani diaspora.
This may have not only diplomatic but also economic consequences, for example in the energy sector. "We should not forget that sanctions have been imposed on Russia. However, Azerbaijan has helped Moscow bypass them in some places. The European Parliament has set up a committee to investigate what kind of gas is being sold to Europe - Azerbaijani or perhaps Russian," recalls Arif Yunusov. If relations between Moscow and Baku deteriorate further, this alleged deal between the two countries will also be in jeopardy, he adds.
Other bilateral projects are also at risk, Musabekov adds: the development of the international transport corridor "North-South" through Azerbaijan and the project to synchronize the Russian and Iranian power grids. Difficulties with the transit of Russian gas to Iran are not ruled out, he warns.
Nevertheless, economic interests are still important for Azerbaijan, summarizes political scientist Krivosheev. "Azerbaijan's economy would prefer to remain outside politics. But while Baku still has room for maneuver, Moscow has fewer and fewer levers of influence." Russia is losing influence in the South Caucasus.