The Russian military command continues to support the thesis of “Putin's victory“, according to which the exhaustion of the Ukrainian army will lead to final victory. On September 18, President Vladimir Putin announced that over 700,000 Russian soldiers are deployed on the front lines, and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov announced progress “on almost all fronts”, reports News.bg.
However, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (ISW) emphasizes that Moscow's victory is not inevitable. Ukraine and the West can use Russian weaknesses, huge human losses, economic exhaustion and difficulties in mobilization to pressure the Kremlin into negotiations. Since January 2025 alone, Russia has lost over 299,000 people in combat, while its territorial gains remain limited.
Kremlin’s Political and Diplomatic Offensive
The Kremlin continues to insist on its original goals in Ukraine. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that compromise is possible only if Russia’s “legitimate security interests” and the rights of the Russian population in Ukraine are guaranteed. Moscow is also seeking to decouple bilateral relations with the United States from the conflict, pressuring the Trump administration to normalize economic ties without ending the war.
In parallel, the Kremlin is stepping up its information campaign against Europe. Lavrov and presidential envoy Sergei Ivanov have accused Finland of “revanchism” and “depopulation“, and MP Alexei Chepa said that the country's NATO membership has reduced Russian tourist and investment flows. According to ISW, this is part of a broader strategy similar to the one used in Ukraine.
Lithuanian authorities have even linked Russian military intelligence to arson attacks in Europe in July 2024, aimed at spreading fear and chaos.
Ukraine and Poland: an alliance in drone warfare
Following the massive Russian drone attacks on September 9-10, Ukraine and Poland signed a memorandum of cooperation in the development and training of unmanned systems. Ukrainian experts will train Polish military personnel, and Warsaw will receive 43.7 billion euros from the EU's SAFE program to strengthen its military industry.
On September 17-18, Russia launched dozens of drones from various regions, but Ukrainian forces shot down 48 of them. The strikes caused damage to residential, commercial and railway infrastructure in Kiev, Poltava and Chernihiv.
Militarization and domestic politics
Moscow continues to integrate Belarus into its military structures through training from the “Wagner“ group. In Russia, the Kremlin has launched a program to recruit war veterans to state institutions “Time of Heroes“. The idea of a 3% quota was described by Putin as “attractive” but risky due to the danger of formalism.
In parallel, Putin extended the term of Valery Gerasimov for another five years, demonstrating his preference for loyal, albeit elderly, commanders. The Kremlin also confirmed the departure of Deputy Chief of Staff Dmitry Kozak, linked to disagreements over the war.
Energy War: Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries
Ukraine continues to attack key energy facilities in Russia. In mid-September, the Lukoil-Volgogradneftepererabotka and Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refineries were hit, with the latter seriously damaged in its fuel production unit.
In the Krasnodar Territory, debris from a drone caused a fire near an oil and gas facility. From March 2024 to September 2025, the Volgograd refinery alone was attacked 12 times.
Humanitarian aspect
On September 18, Russia and Ukraine held a new exchange of bodies. Moscow returned 1,000 Ukrainian military personnel, and Kiev returned 24 Russians.