The attack in Lviv, which resulted in the death of a 23-year-old policewoman and the injury of more than 20 law enforcement officers, showed that Russia is resorting to an escalation of the sabotage campaign aimed at destabilizing Ukrainian society. And in late winter, Russia is redirecting its massive strikes from energy to water supply and railway infrastructure. Such conclusions are drawn by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its new report.
Analysts recall that the law enforcement agencies of Ukraine and Moldova recently announced an operation "Enigma 2.0" – the exposure of an organized group that was preparing contract killings of prominent citizens of Ukraine, in particular, the representative for strategic communication of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GRU MO) Andrey Yusov, journalists and public figures. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) then warned that Russia intended to use these killings to spread panic and destabilize the socio-political situation in Ukraine.
And in August 2025, the former Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Andriy Parubiy was killed in Lviv.
After the attack in Lviv on the night of February 22, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Ukrainian intelligence data indicated a probable intention of Russia to continue such attacks.
ISW believes that Russia will continue to organize such attacks in order to achieve its goal, which is to destabilize Ukraine. “Russia is likely resorting to an escalation of a sabotage campaign aimed at undermining Ukrainians' faith in their security and destabilizing Ukrainian society”, the analysts emphasize. They are convinced that Moscow may also take advantage of reports of such attacks or of arrests related to thwarted conspiracy attempts to push narratives aimed at spreading panic and distrust in Ukrainian society.
ISW analysts also point to the new massive combined strike carried out by Russia against Ukraine on the night of February 22. The analysts draw attention to Volodymyr Zelensky's words that this time Russian troops attacked not only energy facilities, but also logistics, in particular railway facilities and water supply infrastructure in Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Kuleba said that the Russians had struck the railway infrastructure in Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv and Odessa regions, damaging two locomotives.
ISW notes that Russia's reorientation towards new targets for massive strikes comes after attacks aimed at disrupting Ukraine's energy grid in the middle of winter. At the same time, analysts are convinced that the Russians will likely continue their efforts to further disrupt Ukraine's energy infrastructure with long-range combined strikes.
The Russian army is changing the targets of massive strikes and intensifying sabotage campaigns in Ukraine
Analysts are convinced that the Russians will likely continue their efforts to further destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure with the help of long-range combined strikes
Feb 23, 2026 17:33 52
