The restoration of the Ukrainian economy will cost approximately $588 billion over the next decade. This was announced in a joint statement by the World Bank, the United Nations, the European Commission and the Ukrainian government, quoted by Reuters.
The latest assessment of the institutions, based on data from February 24, 2022 to December 31, 2025, shows a 12% increase compared to last year's estimate. This is because there is nearly 21% more destroyed or damaged energy infrastructure than a year earlier.
The study does not include data from Russia’s intensified attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities in January and February, which left tens of thousands across Ukraine without heat, electricity and water during the coldest winter in decades.
The assessment, the fifth since the war began, found that direct damage in Ukraine has reached $195 billion, nearly 11% more than the previous estimate. The hardest hit sectors are housing, transportation and energy.
The report says the damage is massive and growing. The damage is concentrated in frontline areas and metropolitan areas, including the capital, Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is under constant pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to agree to a ceasefire deal that could lead to painful territorial concessions. Talks between Russia and Ukraine in Geneva last week failed to yield a breakthrough.
The war, which will enter its fifth year this week, has sparked Europe’s largest refugee crisis since World War II. As of December 2025, more than 6 million Ukrainians were living as refugees outside the country, and another 4.6 million were displaced within its borders.
The war has also had a huge impact on Ukraine’s economy, with its gross domestic product now 21% smaller in real terms than it was in 2021, before the Russian invasion. If the war continues this year, Ukraine’s GDP growth is expected to be limited to around 2%, but growth could increase moderately to 4% in 2027 and 4.5% in 2028 if a ceasefire is implemented by the end of the year.
"Four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, the total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine is estimated at nearly $588 billion over the next decade, which is almost three times the country’s projected nominal GDP for 2025," Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko said. "Against the backdrop of unprecedented Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and homes across Ukraine this winter, our people have shown resilience, our entrepreneurs continue to work. We are still managing to recover quickly and develop further," she explained.
The biggest damage has been in the housing sector. Nearly 14% of the total housing stock was damaged or destroyed, or about $61 billion, followed by railways and other parts of the transport sector, amounting to $40.3 billion in damage. The energy sector, heavily hit by Russian missile strikes and attacks over the past year, suffered damage of nearly $25 billion, with some citizens facing power outages of up to 18 hours a day.
The report estimates socio-economic losses at $667 billion, a 13% increase over last year, reflecting the extensive and prolonged disruption of economic activity, public services and jobs. The Ukrainian government is already taking steps to meet its recovery needs for this year, including allocating about $15.25 billion for various programs. Ukraine and its partners have spent $20.3 billion since February 2022 on emergency repairs in various sectors, including housing.
The report notes that Ukraine could cover about 40% of its growing recovery needs through the private sector if it carries out targeted reforms to attract capital investment in productive sectors such as agriculture, industry and tourism. "Ukraine's old economic model, with its weak competition, large informal economy and heavy state influence, will not generate the business dynamism needed for recovery," the report argues.
Matthias Schmale, the UN humanitarian coordinator in Ukraine, said steps to return refugees, reintegrate veterans and increase women’s participation in the workforce would be crucial to securing Ukraine’s economic future. He said Ukraine’s most important asset was its people. “Recovery must be people-centred and community-based,” he said.
UN figures show that there are 2.4 million fewer children in Ukraine now than before the war.