Jeremy Shapiro, director of research at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), described in an article for Foreign Affairs a “plausible, but not inevitable“ scenario of the “Americanization of Greenland“ during the second term of US President Donald Trump.
The article, according to the author, aims to prevent the catastrophic outcome described in it.
According to this hypothetical scenario, the United States would establish control over Greenland “bloodlessly“ by 2028: The United States would not acquire or seize the island militarily, but would gradually gain economic and political influence through investments, infrastructure projects and administrative agreements. Shapiro called this process “geoosmosis“ and a "new form of 21st century imperialism," in which sovereignty over the territory is established without the use of force.
Shapiro envisions the White House launching a project called the "Northern Strategic Reorientation Initiative" and allocating $10 billion in May 2026 to modernize Greenland's infrastructure and develop its natural resources. Washington would act through private consortiums and contractors that would build roads, airports, and digital infrastructure in exchange for contractual obligations from local governments. Greenland would thus become functionally dependent on Washington, although it would formally remain part of Denmark.
While most Greenlanders oppose joining the United States, some politicians would agree to the American proposals due to frustration with Copenhagen's "paternalism" and budget constraints, Shapiro suggests. His scenario would see the Greenlandic parliament declare temporary autonomy and a "temporary transitional period for sovereignty" on the island until October 2027. The United States would open "civil-military coordination centers" in Nuuk and three other cities and immediately offer Greenland a Free Association Agreement (COFA) (Washington has similar agreements with small Pacific states).
These actions would anger Denmark, which would recall its ambassador from Washington. The European Union would condemn the United States for violating international law, but would take no action beyond "monitoring the situation." Meanwhile, China and Russia will take the US's actions as an example, the author suggests.
During his first term, Trump expressed interest in buying Greenland from Copenhagen, an idea rejected by both the Danish and island governments: "Greenland is not for sale." After returning to the White House, the Republican reiterated that the United States should own Greenland, claiming that it was "encircled" by Russian and Chinese naval forces. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned that a US attempt to seize Greenland would lead to the end of NATO.