It is clear that the easing of oil sanctions is in Putin's favor, says German expert Janis Kluge. However, Russia's reactions reveal a lot about the relations between Moscow and Tehran, he says in an interview with ARD.
"Russia is currently one of the biggest winners from the oil market crisis," says in an interview with German public television ARD, deputy head of the "Eastern Europe and Eurasia" research group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs Janis Kluge.
According to him, this is not only because of the increased oil prices, but also because of the easing of sanctions. "Russia is currently receiving more than double the revenue from its oil than it did in January and February", Kluge emphasizes. This means that Moscow can earn an additional several hundred million every day that the crisis continues. Therefore, the important question is how long it will last, the expert notes. If it is only a few weeks, this will not be of particular importance, but if it continues, for example, until the end of the year, this could seriously strengthen Russia.
Jannis Kluge explains that at the moment we are talking about the Chinese and Indian markets. They were affected by the new sanctions imposed by the US in the fall. Because of them, Moscow could practically not find any buyers for its oil. That is why many tankers with Russian oil remained at sea. It seems that the Americans want to use this oil stuck there to ease the problems in the oil market, Kluge believes.
For Russia, the relationship with Trump is more important than the partnership with Iran
For Russia, the war in Iran is a double-edged sword, Kluge told ARD. "On the one hand, this way Moscow receives additional oil revenues - the easing of sanctions is a symbolic success. Even this alone is a big breakthrough for Putin. On the other hand, Russia is in a difficult situation because Iran has been an important ally of the Kremlin in recent years and has been sending weapons for the war against Ukraine," the expert explains. At the moment, Russia cannot really support Iran. Putin is extremely reserved in his statements and has not directly criticized American actions at all. "And now it seems as if Russia is abandoning its allies at the most important moments for them", says Kluge.
According to the expert, the relationship between Russia and Iran is a matter of convenience - at least for Russia in recent years. Moscow received drones from Tehran, and also received the technology to be able to produce them itself. Over the past year, this has become one of the biggest problems for Ukraine. At the same time, it is obvious that for Putin it is much more important not to ruin his relationship with Trump, believes Kluge. "This is exactly where the limits of his loyalty and partnership become apparent. Because at the moment, the relationship with the Americans is much more valuable and important for Russia."
What Ukraine Loses and Gains
For Ukraine, however, the problem is not limited to the fact that Russia now earns more from its oil business. Kiev has another big concern, and it is related to weapons and ammunition. The more American military systems are used in the war in Iran, the less they will be able to reach Ukraine, Janis Kluge told ARD.
On the other hand, over the past year, Kiev has been defending itself on two fronts - both from the active war on its territory and from the constant American initiatives in the peace talks, which practically forced Ukraine to capitulate, the expert says. In this sense, the tension and pressure that came from Washington along this line have now weakened. The war in Iran is currently more important for the US, and this may give Kiev some breathing space on the diplomatic front.
In addition, Ukraine can now demonstrate to the world its experience in countering Iranian "Shahed" drones. Kiev has the technology and experts. And this has already led to partnership relations with the Arab countries that Iran is attacking. But the negative aspect for Ukraine, of course, is stronger. Namely, that Russia is being strengthened in the energy markets.