EUvsDisinfo: Moscow's shadow fleet meets Europe's resolve (original title: Sailing under false flag: Moscow’s ‘shadow fleet’ meets Europe’s resolve)
There has been a recent increase in manipulative narratives about Russia's so-called shadow fleet, suggesting growing concern in the Kremlin about its ability to circumvent European sanctions on oil exports.
The Kremlin is exporting Russian oil in tankers under foreign flags. And it covers this practice in a similar way – through false claims pushed by its propaganda machine. Disinformation is an integral part of the Russian leadership’s hybrid arsenal against the West.
Nervousness
Moscow’s growing nervousness stems from the next round of European sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. In preparation for these measures, Russia’s shadow fleet is coming under closer scrutiny. The shadow fleet consists of hundreds of aging oil tankers that fly foreign flags to evade EU sanctions. The tankers, whose ownership is deliberately concealed, illegally transport Russian oil, raw materials or stolen goods from Ukraine to various buyers, including China and India. In December, EU member states imposed restrictive measures against 41 ships, bringing the number of sanctioned tankers to almost 600.
From the Baltic to the Mediterranean
The number of tankers detained has been increasing recently. In late January, the French navy intercepted the oil tanker “Grinch“ in the western Mediterranean, sailing from Murmansk under the flag of the Comoros. The increasingly frequent detentions have provoked a backlash in the form of false narratives from the pro-Kremlin disinformation network - that Europe's actions constitute a de facto maritime blockade. After the detention of “Grinch“ Russian media announced that European measures have reached the stage of “piracy“.
Intimidation of the Union
Some media outlets are considering the possibility of Russia responding asymmetrically – by attacking Western ships or underwater infrastructure.
Another article claims that “disorders” are inevitable in the Baltic Sea and that a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia “will in no way” lead to peace between Russia and the EU. Some publications even announced that NATO is actually preparing a complete naval blockade of the Baltic Sea, including Kaliningrad – i.e. that the region is potentially becoming a zone of military operations.
This is completely unfounded: neither the EU nor NATO is preparing a blockade of the Baltic Sea, nor are they planning to attack Russia. This rhetoric is being used as a signal that continued pressure from Europe could lead to wider disruption and chaos in global trade.
From oil spills to hybrid threats at sea
On January 26, 14 coastal states in the Baltic and North Seas published a letter announcing more decisive measures against ships suspected of being part of Russia's shadow fleet.
The concerns are not only about circumventing EU sanctions and using the proceeds to finance aggression against Ukraine, but also about the potential environmental dangers that the old oil tankers can cause.
The Russian shadow fleet is also believed to serve as a base for drone attacks, to be used for intelligence purposes against the Baltic member states of the EU, to smuggle weapons and other illicit goods, and to destroy critical undersea cables.
Russia’s “Hard” Response
One article quotes an analyst as saying that the letter is an “ultimatum” with military implications, effectively legitimizing a complete naval blockade of the Baltic Sea export routes.
In fact, Moscow’s belligerent messages suggest that Europe’s actions against the shadow fleet are paying off. With its military fully engaged in Ukraine, the Kremlin is resorting to the only hybrid tool it believes gives it a strategic advantage: disinformation. The Russian regime can only respond to EU efforts with fabricated claims, denials, and exaggerations.
EUvsDisinfo/ translation: Predstavitelstvo na Evropyskata komisiya v Bulgaria