Russia could continue the war in Ukraine into 2026, even given growing economic and human resource pressures, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, writes "The Guardian".
Bastian Giegerich, director general of the institute, said there was "few indications" that "Russia's ability to continue its war in Ukraine for a fifth year has diminished".
According to the institute, the Kremlin spent at least $186 billion on defense in 2025, an increase of 3% in real terms, which equates to 7.3% of the country's GDP - more than double the share spent by the US and around three times the level of the UK.
Fenella McGirty, a defence finance expert at the military think tank, said that while the Russian economy was slowing, which could lead to a "potential recession" in real military spending in 2026, this must be compared with several years of sharp growth.
Military spending "has doubled in real terms since 2021," she stressed, allowing Russia to spend more on military equipment and recruitment to sustain relentless ground and air attacks on Ukraine in the near future.
Four years ago, Vladimir Putin started the war in Ukraine, with the Kremlin reorienting itself towards a war economy and suffering more than 1.2 million killed and wounded.
Bastian Gigerich added that "despite Western talk of a sustainable ceasefire agreement, Russia is stepping up its attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure and populated areas with a mix of cruise and ballistic missiles and single-range drones action".
Nigel Gould Davies, a Russia expert at the think tank, said there were "growing signs that Russia's troop buildup rate had begun to slow its monthly losses" on the battlefield, although Moscow has the ability to reduce its casualty rate by slowing its offensives along the Ukrainian front line.
Gould Davies, a former UK ambassador to Belarus, said that if this trend continues, it could eventually force the Kremlin into a "moment of truth" in which it would have to risk a second forced mobilisation and risk the scale of social unrest seen during the September 2022 conscription.
Russia is recruiting between 30,000 and 35,000 men a month, although Gould Davies said he believed the quality of its forces was declining because recruiters were forced to turn to "alcoholics, drug addicts and the downright sick".
Estimates of Russian casualties vary. Figures released by the UK Ministry of Defence earlier this month showed Russia suffered 35,030 casualties in December and 31,713 in January, slightly less than the "nearly 40,000 per month" quoted by Western officials at a briefing on Monday.
Moscow is also using the war to develop new combat tactics, missiles and attack drones, including a modernised Shahed-136 that can hit targets across Europe at a range of 2,000km, as part of an overall military modernisation, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Giegerich said this highlighted the need for NATO to "increase investment in missile defence and anti-drone systems", a need that was demonstrated when 21 Russian drones crossed over Poland last September, closing several airports and forcing people in three regions to be told to evacuate. hide indoors.
European NATO countries and Canada pledged to increase defense budgets to 3.5% by 2035 last summer in response to the growing Russian threat and demands from the Trump administration for the continent to take primary responsibility for its own security.
But in its annual review, the "Military Balance" Institute warned that this would require "sustained and significant investments" that many NATO allies would find difficult to afford, given that it may require spending cuts and compromises with other resources.