The Persian Gulf — The artery, through which about a fifth of the world's crude oil passes, has been blocked and practically closed since the beginning of March, when the war with Iran broke out. About 20 ships have been attacked in the area, and trade traffic has fallen by about 97% compared to normal levels. And yet the flow is not simply "closed" — It is closed by choice, and this restriction has enormous significance for global energy markets.
Between March 1 and 15, at least 89 ships, including 16 oil tankers, passed through the waterway, according to data from the shipping company Lloyd's List Intelligence, cited by A&P. This is significantly less than the usual 100 to 135 crossings per day before the war, but it is far from a complete blockade. More than a fifth of these ships are Iran-related, with the rest being Chinese and Greek-owned.
Iran has exported more than 16 million barrels of oil since the beginning of March, according to trade data platform Krler. The main buyer remains China — a logical consequence of Western sanctions and the associated risks. Texepan has effectively preserved its own worn-out channel, using flow control as a lever: it lists all its own cargoes, and for all others it maintains a regime of strict selectivity.
A number of ships have found a way to exploit this logic. Analysis by the MarineTraffic platform found that some vessels in the area had declared Chinese ownership or an entirely Chinese crew to reduce the risk of attack — a tactic that exploits the closer relations between Πkin and Texepan.
The diplomatic factor also plays a role: Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar confirmed to the Financial Times that the two Indian LPG tankers — "Shiwalik" and "Handa Devi", a member of the Indian Shirring Society, spent the last day around March 13-14 in Japan.
LРG (Poppan-Bitan) is the staple food for millions of Indian households.
Πaĸaĸancĸiĸit tankĸep "Kapachi" The National Shipping Corporation also passed on Sunday, and Iraq is in talks with Texepan to allow its oil tankers to pass through.
Richard Meade of Lloyd's List summarized the model: ships could transit "with some degree of diplomatic intervention," and Iran had "established an effective safe corridor" for selected ships passing near the French coast.
ΠThe consequences of the (partial) closure of global energy markets are already being felt. ΠOil has fallen by over 40% — to over $100 a barrel. The natural gas situation is even more dramatic: the Asian LNG spot benchmark, the Japan-Korea Marker, has risen to $25.40 per million BTU in the days since the crisis began, with some traders reporting peaks of $35.40.
Qatar, which supplies about 20% of global LNG supplies, has announced a surge following Iranian drone strikes on industrial complexes Pac Lafan and Mesaieed. Goldman Sachs warns that a one-month interruption in flows could push European gas prices above 74 euros per megawatt-hour, and in a crisis lasting more than two months - above 100 euros.
The risk extends beyond energy. Morgan Stanley sounds the alarm about the threat to Taiwan's semiconductor industry: the island has only about 11 days of LNG reserves, and TSMC consumes close to 10% of the country's total electricity consumption, producing 90% of the world's advanced chips. Any prolonged disruption to the supply chain would affect global technology supply chains.
The Israeli-American standoff and Donald Trump's threats to restrict traffic flow operate under rules dictated solely by the Texan.