Until recently, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's self-confidence was unshakable. His "Fidesz" party was the most successful political community in Europe, he repeated in almost every speech. Its election victories with a two-thirds majority could be "seen from the moon." Orban had also announced ambitions to govern well beyond the end of the decade.
Meanwhile, during his public appearances, the Hungarian prime minister often gives the impression of insecurity. Sometimes he speaks incoherently, sometimes he stutters, and sometimes he asks his supporters to devote themselves entirely to his election campaign with a trembling voice. After 16 years as prime minister, Orban looks like an aging autocrat who senses that sentiment is turning against him but does not want to let go of power.
Six weeks before Hungary's parliamentary elections on April 12, it is still not entirely certain that Orban and "Fidesz" will lose power. But the polls are pointing in that direction. At the same time, more and more observers are wondering whether Orban would accept his possible electoral defeat. So far, he has not given a clear answer to the question of whether he will guarantee a democratic change of power.
Accusations against Ukraine
What's more: Orban is now even fueling fears that he will not accept a change of power. He announced that he had ordered Hungarian military units to be deployed to the country's energy facilities and accused Ukraine of "preparing actions designed to disrupt the functioning of the Hungarian energy system". Specific evidence for the accusations was not named, but along with the soldiers, military defense systems and police units will be positioned at the energy facilities.
The background to this move is the fact that since the end of January, Hungary has not received Russian fuel through the "Druzhba" oil pipeline. It passes through the territory of Ukraine and was severely damaged in a Russian attack in January. There is no exact data on the scale of the damage - Ukrainian authorities say that repairing the oil pipeline will take a long time.
Orbán, for his part, accuses Ukraine of deliberately cutting off oil supplies to Hungary in order to provoke an energy crisis in the country and in the elections "install a government that supports the war and Ukraine". The goal of such a government would be - as stated in Orbán's current election campaign - to financially drain the Hungarian people in order to provide funds for the war in Ukraine.
"Tisza" leads convincingly
Hungarian opposition politicians, but also a number of commentators, panicked. They see Orbán's order to deploy military units as a step that could hinder the elections or even cancel them. Because just hours before its announcement, the results of a new survey were released, predicting a heavy electoral defeat for Orbán and his party.
It was carried out by the independent public opinion research institute Median and predicts an 11 percent lead for the opposition party "Tisza" over "Fidesz" Orban's.
After Orban's order was announced, Hungarian opposition leader Peter Magyar warned of the possibility of staged attacks that the government could use as a pretext to disrupt or cancel the elections. He called on Orban to "hand over power peacefully" and "not to think about decisions related to the Russian secret services." "We don't know what Fidesz will be capable of in such a tense situation," political scientist Andras Biro-Nagy commented in this regard.
Orban's threats
Election observers in Hungary have long debated whether the prime minister would accept a change of power or not. Because Orban's obsession with power has been known in the country for decades. In 2002, he commented on his election defeat with the words: "The homeland cannot be in opposition".
Since then, Orbán and his party have been perceived as the only legitimate representatives of the Hungarian nation - all others are enemies or traitors. This is the tone of the current election campaign, in which Magyar, Orbán's competitor, presents himself as a servant of Kiev and Brussels, whose victory would lead to the demise of the Hungarian nation.
"The System of National Cooperation"
In material terms, however, the stakes for Orbán are also extremely high. The prime minister has built a system in which a circle of his relatives and close businessmen have enriched themselves immensely through abuse of power and corruption. In this system, tens of thousands of smaller party members and sympathizers of "Fidesz" also benefit from their positions and benefits.
If there is a change of power, this "System of National Cooperation", as Orbán calls it, would largely collapse. Both the prime minister and members of his family and entourage can expect investigations and accusations.
Therefore, in the context of the elections, "nothing is ruled out and nothing is unthinkable", political scientist Robert Laszlo told DW. According to him, it is not improbable that Orbán's government will cancel the elections. He says that it could even lead to nationwide unrest if the elections, which correspond to the will of the people, are canceled.
Support from Moscow
Ukrainian political scientist Anton Shekhovtsov also admits that the cancellation of the elections is possible. Orban could not afford direct electoral fraud like in Russia or Belarus, but in Hungary there are indications of a scenario in which the elections would be annulled due to "foreign interference" - and specifically due to alleged interference by Ukraine.
The political scientist points out that Orban has long received at least verbal pre-election support from the Kremlin and the Russian secret services. Budapest and Moscow have joined forces to impose on public opinion the disinformation narrative according to which "the EU and Ukraine are cooperating against "Fidesz" with Orban's main political rival - Peter Magyar," says Shekhovtsov.
Meanwhile, Gergely Gulas, the Hungarian prime minister's chief of staff, has tried to dispel concerns related to the task set for the Hungarian army. A state of emergency will not be imposed, the elections will take place as planned on April 12, he said.
Author: Keno Ferzek