The Russian oil refining industry is failing to meet rising domestic gasoline demand as Ukrainian strikes continue to reduce Russia's oil refining capacity.
"Reuters" reported on July 10, citing two industry sources and its own estimates, that Russian gasoline production has fallen to about 65 percent of average seasonal consumption and that Russian production is not meeting seasonal gasoline demand.
This is according to the "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW).
The two industry sources told Reuters that seasonal gasoline demand had increased by 40,000 to 45,000 metric tons per day (a shortfall of about 35 percent) and that total gasoline demand in Russia typically reaches between 115,000 and 120,000 metric tons per day during the peak summer driving season. Reuters noted that Russian gasoline production had fallen 25 percent below domestic demand in June 2026.
Intermediaries told Reuters that Russia was tapping federal reserves and receiving 6,000 metric tons of gasoline per day from Belarus. "Reuters" noted that Ukraine's combined strikes on Russia's largest gasoline producers, including the "Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez" refineries (NORSI) and "Omsk" in the Nizhny Novgorod and Omsk regions, respectively, have forced Russia to temporarily halt production at these facilities.
Reuters reported on July 9, citing two sources familiar with the matter, that the "Saratov" oil refinery had suspended operations on July 7 after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged the facility's only primary oil refining unit, the CDU-6.
It is unclear how long the "Saratov" oil refinery will remain closed. will remain out of service, having previously reportedly suspended operations in March and May 2026 following Ukrainian strikes.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged on July 10 that some Russian oil refineries had partially halted production due to Ukrainian drone strikes and noted that Russian authorities would provide additional gasoline supplies to Russian federal subjects.
Regional authorities in Russia and in occupied regions, including Crimea, continue to impose restrictions on gasoline sales and adapt to worsening gasoline shortages across Russia. Some authorities are even urging Russians to work remotely and limit travel to reduce gasoline consumption.
On July 9, Kazakhstan's Interior Ministry announced that it had deployed 59 police posts along the international border and imposed some restrictions on the entry of foreign vehicles to combat illegal fuel exports, likely targeting individuals attempting to smuggle gasoline back into Russia.
A Russian state-run sociological institute indicated that Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval rating continued to fall in early July 2026 after a sharp drop in late June 2026. Russia's state-run All-Russian Center for Public Opinion Research (VTsIOM) published the results of a poll on July 10, according to which Putin's approval rating fell by 0.9 percentage points to 66%, and trust fell by one percentage point to 72.3% between June 29 and June 5. July.
Polls by VTsIOM and other Russian state and independent polling agencies show that Putin's trust and approval ratings fell sharply in late June 2026 after weeks of steady decline since March 2026.
Notably, a Russian state polling center has found it necessary to acknowledge growing public discontent, which is likely related to the growing shortage of gasoline across Russia.
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has confirmed recent US warnings that Russia may be planning provocations against unspecified NATO countries. Sikorski stated during a press conference with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot on July 9 that Poland has "credible information" that Russia is planning to carry out provocations against unspecified NATO countries.
Sikorski noted that his statement was a public warning aimed at dissuading Russia from carrying out such provocations, and Barrot confirmed that France had similarly observed an increase in Russian provocations.
The Polish newspaper Onet reported on June 30 that the United States had warned Poland that Russia was considering a limited military provocation against Poland, and Sikorski's statement served as confirmation of these reported warnings.