Kremlin is conducting a concerted air and intelligence operation to to destroy the city of Kharkiv and internally displace millions of Ukrainians before any future Russian offensive against the city or elsewhere in Ukraine. The head of Kharkiv Region Oleg Sinegubov and the Kharkiv Region Prosecutor's Office reported that on the afternoon of April 22, Russian forces struck a TV tower in the city of Kharkiv, possibly with a Kh-59 cruise missile. The impact disrupted television signals in the area.
This is stated in the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) daily analysis.
Ukrainian and Russian media and Russian bloggers shared photos and videos of the damaged television tower, which partially collapsed as a result of the impact. Russian sources tried to justify the strike by claiming that Ukrainian forces had installed air defense communication and coordination equipment on the tower.
They hinted that Russian forces have attempted similar strikes against towers in several areas on several occasions, including in March 2022.
Russian forces notably hit a television tower in the city of Kiev on March 1, 2022, shortly after the war in Ukraine began. The Kremlin may intend to recall the first weeks of the war to create panic among Ukrainians during another difficult time.
He took advantage of fears about a future Russian offensive against the city of Kharkiv to conduct a possibly coordinated information operation in an attempt to create extreme panic among Ukrainians. ISW estimates that the likelihood of a successful Russian ground offensive against Kharkiv is very low if Ukraine quickly receives renewed US military aid. The Ukrainian Anti-Disinformation Center warned as early as February 2024 about Russian Telegram channels spreading claims that Ukrainian officials were fleeing the city of Kharkiv. Russian sources claimed in early April that there was a "mass exodus" of civilians from the city of Kharkiv.
Ukraine's Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security recently commented on a Russian intelligence operation in which Ukrainian officials allegedly prevented civilians from leaving the city of Kharkiv. He notes that Russian forces are taking advantage of concerns about a possible Russian offensive operation to sow panic and a sense of "imminent, inevitable disaster" in Ukraine.
Russian state television propagandist Vladimir Solovyov said on March 28 that Russian forces must destroy Kharkiv "neighborhood by neighborhood". and offered Ukrainian civilians 48 hours to leave the city, possibly before they were killed in Russia's destruction of the city. The Russian neo-nationalist publication Tsargrad expanded on claims by several unnamed military sources on April 16 that a Russian offensive to capture the city of Kharkiv was imminent and that the situation would become "worse than Bakhmut and Avdeevka".
Tsargrad claims that there is "no doubt" that Russian forces will capture the city of Kharkiv, but that "blockade tactics" such as "cutting off electricity, gas and water" for civilians, is the most reasonable way for Russian forces to capture the city and avoid heavy losses. A prominent Russian blogger claims that Russia's April 22 strikes are an indication that Ukrainian civilians should leave the city of Kharkiv "while they still can".
Ukrainian officials have previously discussed the possibility of Russian forces launching a ground operation against the city of Kharkiv later this summer. ISW continues to assess that the Russians do not have the forces to take the city as long as the Ukrainian forces defending it are adequately supplied, as they will be if the US resumes military aid soon.
Russia is stepping up strike and intelligence operations to take advantage of heightened tensions in Ukraine ahead of the expected arrival of US military aid to the frontline. Ukrainian officials recently warned of a possible future Russian offensive operation to capture the city of Kharkiv. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on April 19 signaled such an operation, claiming that the city of Kharkiv "plays an important role" in Russian President Vladimir Putin's idea of creating a demilitarized "sanitary zone" in Ukraine to supposedly protect Russian border settlements from Ukrainian strikes.
Russia's intended "sanitary zone" it can represent a range of conditions on the ground from the capture of the city of Kharkiv and surrounding areas to the creation of an uninhabited, ruined "no man's land" that neither side controls. ISW has previously assessed that a Russian offensive operation aimed at capturing the city of Kharkiv would be an extremely ambitious undertaking that would pose significant challenges to Russian forces. The Russian military command will likely have to revise its objectives for its projected offensive effort in the summer of 2024 to account for better equipped and staffed Ukrainian forces.
However, Russian forces do not have an indefinite time frame in which to pursue this larger breakthrough. European military aid will soon start arriving, along with that from the US, if the US Senate passes the bill. European Union (EU) High Commissioner Josep Borrell said on April 22 that the first shipments of artillery ammunition received through the Czech-led initiative for Ukraine will arrive in the country by the end of May to the beginning of June.
Ukraine's ability to match the ratio of artillery fire to Russian forces on the battlefield will be essential to deprive Russian forces of the initiative and slow the pace of the ongoing Russian advance in areas of the front such as the Avdeyevka direction. Russian forces are similarly increasing the rate of tactical-level gains in the direction of Liman and west and southwest of the city of Donetsk to consolidate gains as quickly as possible. The Russian military command is likely aware of the closing window before more Western aid arrives and is trying to secure offensive gains before the window closes.
Russian forces are likely to continue to make tactical gains along the Berdichi-Novokalinovo line and elsewhere in the theater in the coming weeks as they step up offensive operations pending the arrival of Western assistance. However, the currently closing window of low Ukrainian resources is likely to prevent Russian forces from being able to translate tactical advances into operationally meaningful gains for the most part, although some are possible; and Ukraine's receipt of Western aid is likely to position Ukrainian forces to accept the upcoming offensives that Russian forces are preparing for.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on April 22 that Finland is taking concrete steps to defend itself against Russian hybrid operations weaponizing Russian-made migrant crises on the Russian-Finnish border.
The WSJ noted that the Finnish government believes Russia has sent waves of migrants to the Finnish border as part of a larger hybrid operation aimed at intimidating and testing security services after joining NATO. The WSJ reported that in addition to creating a migrant crisis in late 2023, Russia has also escalated cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns against Finland. Finnish diplomat and former Finnish ambassador to Russia Heikki Talvitie told the WSJ that recent Russian hybrid efforts against Finland have fundamentally changed relations between the countries. The Kremlin specifically threatened Finland on April 6 and accused it of following a "destructive course" in its relations with Russia.
ISW has consistently assessed that such Russian statements against NATO countries are intended to force NATO leaders to refrain from taking concrete actions to defend against Russian hybrid efforts.
The Kremlin appears to be emphasizing its relations with Azerbaijan while playing down deteriorating Russian-Armenian relations following Russia's failure to prevent the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia in September 2023. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met in Moscow on April 22 to discuss " very sensitive" regional security issues.
Putin stated that relations between the two countries are at a high level and continue to develop. Putin said Russian-Azerbaijani trade is increasing and stressed that Russia has invested $6 billion in the Azerbaijani economy. Aliyev called Russia a "main country" in guaranteeing the security of the Caucasus region. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on April 22 that Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan would likely meet in person soon, a repeat of Peskov's equally vague statement on April 10.
Peskov also claimed that Russian peacekeeping forces, which the Russian-brokered Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire of November 2020 stipulated would remain in the region until 2025, had withdrawn from Nagorno-Karabakh because the "geopolitical realities" in the region have changed "after Armenia recognized the borders of Azerbaijan since 1991" and there were no more functions for the peacekeepers to perform.
The Secretary General of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Imangali Tasmagambetov, said that relations between the CSTO and Armenia were "not going through the best period", but that Armenia's activities in the CSTO continued. Armenia and the CSTO are working on unnamed issues in a "working mode". Earlier, Pashinyan stated that Armenia will leave the CSTO if it fails to meet certain Armenian expectations.