Russian forces are likely to achieve significant tactical successes in the coming weeks as Ukraine waits for US front-line aid, but unlikely to overpower Ukrainian defenses.
That's according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) daily analysis, with the topic continuing to top the charts for another day.
Politico reported on April 26 that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned US House Speaker Mike Johnson in December 2023 that Ukrainian forces would be able to "hold out" until April 2024 with no additional US security assistance.
The arrival of US aid to the front in the coming weeks will allow Ukrainian forces to halt ongoing Russian offensive operations, and Russian forces appear to be in a hurry.
Russian forces may intend to use new technological or tactical innovations right at the start of their summer offensive to offset the stronger capabilities that Ukrainian forces will possess after the arrival of US security assistance. However, they still suffer from tactical failures, and Ukrainian forces will be able to take advantage of this.
Ukraine is very likely to stabilize the front lines in the coming months and begin limited counteroffensive operations in late 2024 or early 2025
Russian forces continue to use their tactical penetration north and northwest of Avdeevka and have recently made further confirmed advances in the area. Geolocated footage released on April 27 showed Russian forces advancing north toward Novokalinov (north of Avdeyevka), and Russian bloggers claimed the settlement was fully captured on April 27.
Some bloggers also claim that Russian forces have advanced into Keramik (directly northwest of Novokalinov), although ISW has yet to see evidence of this. Geolocated footage released on April 27 also shows that Russian forces have advanced in western Ocheretyne, in southwestern Solovyovo, south of Novobakhmutovka. The bloggers claim that Russian forces have captured all of Solovyov, which is consistent with available geolocation footage of Russian forces in the southwestern part of the settlement. Several Russian sources also claim that heavy fighting continues in western Berdichi (northwest of Avdeyevka) and that Russian forces are pushing Ukrainian forces west of the settlement.
Ukraine's Center for Defense Strategies similarly noted on April 26 that Russian forces engaged two motorized rifle brigades and one motorized rifle regiment directly in the tactical penetration of the Ocheretyne region, creating a threefold advantage in Russian forces and assets over Ukrainian forces and assets.
However, Russian forces are likely to step up offensive operations near Chasov Yar in the coming weeks, as it provides an opportunity for more significant operational progress. Russian forces have recently deployed roughly a division's worth of combat power northwest of Avdeevka, giving them roughly a threefold advantage over Ukraine's available combat power in the same area, according to unofficial Ukrainian estimates.
If Russian forces manage to intensify their attacks and capture Chasov Yar, they will be able to use it for subsequent offensive operations against critical towns such as Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka. The wider operational target is Pokrovsk and the Donetsk region.
Russian forces launched large-scale cruise and ballistic missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of April 26-27 and may have resumed strikes with "Caliber" cruise missiles. with a sea-based base after a long hiatus. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lt. Gen. Mykola Oleschuk said on April 27 that Russian forces fired 34 missiles: nine Kh-101/555 cruise missiles from the Saratov region; nine Kh-59/69 cruise missiles from the Belgorod Region and the Sea of Azov; two S-300 missiles from the Belgorod region; two Iskander-K ballistic missiles, four Kh-47 Kinzhal ballistic missiles from the Ryazan and Tambov regions; as well as eight cruise missiles "Caliber" from the Black Sea. Ukrainian forces have destroyed a total of 21 missiles.
Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko and Ukraine's largest private energy operator DTEK said unspecified Russian missiles had hit Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities in Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv and Dnipropetrovsk regions and "seriously" have damaged four unspecified thermal power plants (CHP).
This is the first larger Russian strike package since late December 2023 that does not include Shahed drones. Ukrainian Southern Operations Command spokesman Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk said this series of strikes was only the third confirmed use of "Calibre" missiles. for more than six months. The Russian forces launched them from two "Kilo" class submarines. for fear of losing surface ships to Ukrainian strikes.
Pletenchuk stated that the two submarines are based in Novorossiysk, indicating that the Russian military has sufficiently improved the infrastructure of the Black Sea Fleet (Black Sea Fleet) port in Novorossiysk.
Military officials of Ukraine and the United Kingdom (UK) reported in February and March 2024 that the naval base in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea is the only base with infrastructure for "Caliber".
Deputy head of Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Major General Vadim Skibitsky, reported in April 2024 that Russia had stockpiled at least 260 Kalibr missiles. and aims to produce 30 more in April.
Ukrainian forces successfully carried out drone strikes against a Russian airport and oil refineries in the Krasnodar Territory on the night of April 26-27. Anonymous sources have told the Ukrainian publication Suspilne that the Security Service of Ukraine and the Ukrainian military have successfully carried out drone attacks against Kushtovskaya Airport, while "dozens" Russian military aircraft, radar systems and electronic warfare systems have been deployed there. ISW has not seen confirmation of damaged equipment at the airport.
Geolocated footage released on April 27 shows the aftermath of the Ukrainian strike at Kushchovskaya airport and purportedly shows damaged bomb planning kits.
Russian bloggers have widely criticized the Russian military for failing to secure the airport after multiple successful Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian airfields in occupied Ukraine and Russia. Suspilne sources said that Ukrainian drones struck oil refineries in Ilski and Slavyansk, damaging their distillation columns and causing fires.
The governor of the Krasnodar region, Veniamin Kondratev, said that Ukrainian drones tried to hit oil refineries and infrastructure facilities in Slavyansk, Siversk and Kushtyuvsk regions, but that the strikes did not cause "serious" damages.
Slavyansk oil refinery security director Eduard Trudnev said 10 drones hit the refinery, causing a partial shutdown, and noted that there could be additional unseen damage.
Ukraine's SBU, special forces and unmanned systems forces previously struck the Slavyansk oil refinery on the night of March 16-17.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claims that Russian forces intercepted 66 Ukrainian drones over the Krasnodar Territory on the night of April 26-27.
The Russian federal government continues efforts to codify enhanced controls on migrant communities living in Russia. On April 27, the State Duma of Russia introduced a bill that "proposes a number of innovations that will help modernize Russian legislation and resolve some issues of ensuring national security in the field of migration.
The proposed bill also includes provisions to introduce a deportation regime for migrants who "have no grounds" to be in Russia, including those who commit certain crimes.
The proposed bill would also prevent aliens subject to deportation from buying real estate, opening bank accounts or getting married.
The deportation bill would allow Russia's federal government to determine which foreign individuals or communities it chooses to target for deportation, a move likely to allow the government to extend more repressive controls over migrant communities and cater to Russian ultranationalists. who have often called for such harsh policies.
The Russian Ministry of Education and Science similarly announced on April 27 that the 12 Russian universities authorized to conduct certification exams in Russian have terminated their contracts with commercial partners. This means that only universities and state and municipal organizations can administer the certificates in Russian.
This development will significantly complicate the process of obtaining a Russian language certificate for migrants, possibly limiting their access to certain jobs or even social services. It would also give the Russian government greater control over migrant communities. However, the Russian government appears to be selectively empowering some migrant communities while further disenfranchising others. A joint project led by Russia's RT and Russia's Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIA), called "Not one to one", sends requests to the MIA to help foreigners obtain Russian citizenship in certain limited cases.
The RT project reported that it has sent an inquiry to the Ministry of Internal Affairs regarding the citizenship of a Kyrgyz migrant who fled Kyrgyzstan to Russia after being convicted of fighting for Russian forces in Ukraine.
Russian authorities have stepped up their crackdown on Central Asian migrants living in Russia, especially since the Crocus City Hall attack on March 22, and the RT project highlights the fact that the Russian government is interested in selectively protecting some migrants from Central Asian communities, while as they are ideologically useful in the context of the Russian military effort.
The Kremlin is likely setting conditions for stepping up its hybrid operations against Moldova. The Kremlin-linked governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul, told TASS in the Kremlin on April 26 that Moldovan law enforcement officers detained her and three of her advisers for several hours when the group arrived at Chisinau airport following a series of attacks . the last meetings in Russia and Turkey.
Gutsul claimed that Moldovan law enforcement checked her luggage and detained her for an hour before releasing her, and one of Gutsul's advisers told TASS that Moldovan authorities questioned the three advisers for another two hours.
It is unclear whether Moldovan authorities have officially detained Gutsul and her advisers. TASS reported that a group of 100 people gathered outside the airport to welcome Gutsul and chanted "Victory" as Gutsul exited the airport, possibly referring to Gutsul's position as executive secretary of the newly formed pro-Russian Moldovan "Victory" electoral bloc.
Gutsul claims that Moldovan authorities are making every effort to humiliate her and other pro-Russian Moldovans, and described the recent confiscation of over $1 million by Moldovan authorities from Kremlin-linked Moldovan opposition politicians as "prejudiced" an effort to humiliate innocent Moldovans.
Gutsul and other pro-Kremlin actors will likely continue to take advantage of short-term detentions and the Moldovan government's legitimate efforts to defend against Russian hybrid operations to justify further Russian aggression against Moldova.
The Moldovan government is also taking steps to address known Russian intelligence operations targeting Gagauzia. The Moldovan Audiovisual Council announced on April 26 that it had fined two regional and local television (TV) stations in Gagauzia, "TV-Gagauzia" and "ATV", with 100,000 Moldovan lei ($5,627) for spreading disinformation, hate speech and failing to provide " information security" with their shows.
ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is likely engaged in hybrid operations in Moldova and intends to use pro-Russian forces in Gagauzia and Transnistria to destabilize and degrade Moldovan democracy and ultimately prevent Moldova from joining the EU.
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