Ukraine has declared its readiness to help Middle Eastern countries defend themselves against Iranian drones, which are now attacking infrastructure and military facilities in the Persian Gulf. According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, his country has extensive experience in defending against drones and is ready to share it. Kiev is already holding such consultations with the United States, Europe and countries neighboring Iran, he announced on his Telegram channel.
Kiev sets conditions
"I propose the following: the heads of state and government of the Middle East maintain good relations with the Russians. "They could ask the Russians for a month-long ceasefire," Zelensky said in an interview with Bloomberg. After the ceasefire comes into effect, Ukraine could "send the best operators of anti-drone systems to the Middle East." "We can help Israel in the same way," the Ukrainian head of state added.
A similar statement was made later by Foreign Minister Andriy Sibikha in an interview with Reuters. He said that the Ukrainian armed forces would repel 90% of the Iranian "Shahed" drones with Ukrainian-made interceptor drones. "We won't be able to send all our forces, but we will definitely be able to send some if we are guaranteed that there will be no Russian attacks on our country," Sibiha said.
What can Ukraine offer the Gulf states?
The Arab states have long ignored the nature of the Russian-Ukrainian war and did not realize that Russia is an important ally of Iran and is helping it improve its drone technology, says Oleksandr Khara of the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies in an interview with DW. He notes that the situation changed only when Iranian drones, reinforced with Russian components, began attacking targets in the Persian Gulf itself.
Kiev can offer not only experience in defending against Iranian drones, but also well-trained forces for action, says Khara. Ukraine intercepts hundreds of drones every night and knows how and with what it is best achieved. He points out that drone defense for the rich countries in the region is primarily a matter of economic expediency. "The point is that shooting down a $30,000 drone with a missile that costs at least $100,000, and in the case of the "Patriot" system, even tens of millions, becomes a hopeless task. Given this threat from Iran, it makes sense to invest in Ukrainian capabilities," the expert says.
Hara sees three possible scenarios for cooperation between Ukraine and the Gulf states. First: as emergency assistance - sending experienced Ukrainian forces with interceptor drones that can start protecting the facilities. Second: training drone pilots both in Arab countries and in Ukraine, which would strengthen "military solidarity". Third: investments of Arab capital in the Ukrainian defense industry for mass production of interceptor drones for both countries.
A barter deal with the US?
Ukraine is considering the possibility of transferring its own developments for the production of interceptor drones to the Gulf states, Zelensky told journalists on March 3. In return, Kiev hopes to receive American PAC-3 anti-aircraft missiles for the "Patriot" system, which are of great importance for strengthening the Ukrainian air defense system, the president said.
On March 5, the "Financial Times" reported that the Pentagon and the government of at least one of the Gulf states are negotiating the purchase of Ukrainian-made interceptor drones. The publication cites anonymous industry representatives in Ukraine.
Oleg Katkov, a military expert and editor-in-chief of Defense Express, emphasizes that the Gulf states have huge financial resources and can afford any kind of equipment. However, they do not have what Ukraine has: real data and battle-tested algorithms. "The value lies solely in the fact that, based on our own experience, we can help build an appropriate air defense system. This is an extremely large amount of information. Apart from Ukraine, no one else has data on how many mobile fire teams and how much ammunition are needed, which equipment actually works and which does not", Katkov told DW.
What does Ukraine want in return?
President Volodymyr Zelensky clearly wants to take advantage of Ukraine's military experience and is setting conditions for his partners. According to them, Russia should not continue to be helped in circumventing sanctions, but instead, pressure should be exerted on Moscow to end the war against Ukraine.
Olexander Khara speaks of a "classic win-win situation". Middle Eastern countries would benefit from Ukraine's experience in the fight against Iranian drones, and Ukraine would get a "Middle Eastern coalition" against Russia. According to the expert, Saudi Arabia could, for example, drastically lower the price of oil in the shortest possible time. "A price reduction to $20-30 would immediately undermine Russia's raw material base, which is already selling its oil at discounts," explains Khara.
On the other hand, Oleg Katkov does not believe that Ukraine will benefit from this quickly. According to him, the talks about supporting Middle Eastern countries in defense against drones go beyond a purely technical discussion. If these countries accept the Ukrainian proposal, Katkov expects quick decisions to shoot down Iranian drones. But as for political decisions, they are rarely made quickly, the expert points out.
Igor Semivolos from the Ukrainian think tank "Association for Middle Eastern Studies" (AMES) in Kiev believes that Ukraine's proposal to the Middle Eastern countries is more of a diplomatic move by Zelensky than a concrete plan for the near future. "The idea that the sheikhs should end the war in Ukraine by putting pressure on Russia currently seems a bit utopian. Of course, they have influence on Russia, but they also pursue their own interests," the expert told DW.
Author: Liliya Rzheutskaya