Until now, China and personally Xi Jinping deter Vladimir Putin from a nuclear escalation in Ukraine, but this could very quickly change, writes OBOZ.UA.
From the point of view of political pragmatism, it would be very useful for Beijing to get Moscow to use nuclear weapons on a limited scale to test the West's reaction to this move. It is no secret that China is preparing to conduct a military operation against Taiwan in the next three years, so checking the red lines of the West and the US regarding nuclear escalation would be very fruitful for Beijing.
On May 6, a day before Putin's inauguration, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced the preparation of exercises with tactical nuclear weapons near the Ukrainian border in the near future. Such exercises are planned for the first time since the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation in Ukraine. Of particular note is the fact that this military district includes the occupied Crimea and the partially occupied territories of four regions in the south and east of Ukraine.
Also, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko also announced a "sudden inspection" of the carriers of tactical nuclear weapons in his country, which was reported by the Ministry of Defense of Belarus. Despite the fact that since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin has repeatedly used the rhetoric of nuclear intimidation of Ukraine and its allies, it is necessary to take such threats with the utmost caution. This is due to the fact that for the first time during this time, training specifically for the preparation and use of a tactical nuclear weapon will take place.
Russia may dare to launch a demonstration strike to enforce its terms for ending the war. And although the overall probability of Russia using nuclear weapons still remains low and will not give it a real military advantage, one should not rely too much on the ability of Ukraine's partners and other countries around the world to influence the Kremlin leader. Rather, China, not NATO, will determine whether Russia will use nuclear weapons or not.