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ISW: In Kharkiv Oblast - Russian attacks and Ukrainian counterattacks

It is unclear which objective will support the second phase of the operation or whether Russian forces have a more ambitious operational objective in mind

Май 26, 2024 08:15 1 096

ISW: In Kharkiv Oblast - Russian attacks and Ukrainian counterattacks  - 1

Ukrainian and Russian sources said that Ukrainian forces are still more contest the tactical initiative in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast and Russian operations in the area are defensive. The Ukrainian General Staff announced on May 24 that they were pushing back Russian forces from Ukrainian defenses in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian forces had established control over an unspecified section of the border where Russian forces initially crossed into the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast after the start of Russian offensive operations on May 10.

A Ukrainian commander operating in the direction of Liptsi (north of the city of Kharkiv) said that Ukrainian forces had completely halted Russian offensive operations in the direction of Strilecha-Gliboke (north of Liptsi). Ukrainian forces are now focused on regaining territory in the area.

This is stated in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The commander stated that Ukrainian forces were successfully pushing Russian forces out of captured positions, but that Russian forces were saturating the area with manpower and equipment to prevent Ukrainian forces from seizing the tactical initiative.

A well-known Kremlin-linked blogger claims that Russian forces have partially moved to the defensive in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast after consolidating captured positions. They are currently focused on destroying the reserves that Ukrainian forces have concentrated near the city of Kharkiv.

The blogger estimated that Ukrainian forces would have to launch counterattacks in the area in late May 2024, and that future Russian plans along this axis likely depend on the outcome.

Russian forces began their offensive operation in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast with limited manpower and have not yet committed significant reserves to the area. This leads to a decreasing pace of Russian advances and offensive operations.

This likely gives Ukrainian forces tactical options to counterattack, although they are not yet conducting a limited counteroffensive operation.

Russian forces reportedly had approximately 35,000 personnel in the international border area when they began offensive operations on May 10. Ukrainian sources indicate that the Russian army intends to concentrate a total of up to 70,000 personnel.

Zelensky said in an interview published on May 25 that Russian forces have suffered eight-to-one losses in northern Kharkiv Oblast over the past two weeks. But they do not appear to have forced the Russian military to commit significant reserves to support Russian offensive operations in the area.

Russian forces are likely to begin the second phase of their offensive operation in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast after their planned capture of Vovchansk. Although positional battles and possible Ukrainian counterattacks may force Russian forces to launch a new wave of intensified attacks in the area to complete the capture of the settlement.

Currently, Russian forces are seeking to create a "buffer zone" in the northern part of Kharkiv region. It is not clear what objective the second phase of the operation will support, or whether Russian forces have a more ambitious operational objective in mind.

Ukraine's State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) announced on May 25 that it had launched an investigation into the improperly prepared Ukrainian defense in the area and the abandonment of Ukrainian positions in the directions of Liptsi and Vovchansk.

Russian forces launched four separate strikes against the city of Kharkiv on May 25: a missile strike with an Iskander-M missile and S-300/S-400 air defense missiles against a school shortly after midnight; strike with two precision-planning KAB bombs on construction hypermarket "Epicenter" in the city around 1:00 p.m.; strike with unspecified ammunition against Central Park in the city of Kharkiv shortly after 17:00; and a strike in a residential area in the center of the city of Kharkiv shortly after 1900

The hypermarket strike caused a fire that spread over 15,000 square meters and engulfed the entire hypermarket.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said up to 200 people were likely inside the hypermarket at the time of the strikes, and Ukrainian authorities have since confirmed that the strike at the "Epicenter" has killed at least five people, injured at least 40 and that 16 are currently missing.

The head of Ukraine's Kharkiv region Oleg Sinegubov said that the evening attack on a central residential area of Kharkiv injured at least 18 people.

Russian electronic warfare capabilities have reportedly affected the effectiveness of selected Western weapons systems in Ukraine in 2023 as Ukraine and Russia continue to compete in the technical offense and defense race. The Washington Post and the New York Times (NYT) reported on May 24 and 25, respectively, that senior Ukrainian military official sources and confidential Ukrainian military assessments described how Russian air defenses had previously reduced the effectiveness of Western weapons in Ukraine.

The NYT reported that the success rate of M982 Excalibur guided artillery rounds dropped from 55 percent to seven percent between January and August 2023, and that Ukrainian forces had stopped using the rounds. They also reportedly had problems with guided munitions in early 2023.

The Washington Post noted that the United States has the means to combat Russian radio jamming. The US military probably won't experience the same problems with Russian EW because it has more advanced technology.

In particular, Ukrainian forces have recently conducted successful ATACMS missile strikes against Russian targets in occupied Ukraine, including Crimea, suggesting that Ukrainian forces have been able to at least partially overcome Russian jamming and/or that Russian electronic warfare capabilities are not widespread throughout occupied Ukraine.

Both the NYT and Washington Post noted that Russia and Ukraine are engaged in an offensive-defensive race as both sides seek to adapt to the other's innovations - as ISW often appreciates.

Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov flatly rejected the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and outlined Russia's maximalist terms for peace talks during an interview with Newsweek on May 25.

Antonov dismissed Western claims that Russia was unwilling to negotiate with Ukraine as a "deliberate attempt" to distort reality. According to him, any Russian-Ukrainian peace agreement must take into account the situation on the battlefield and be signed by a "legitimate" Ukrainian leader. But for Moscow, it is now unclear who could sign such a document, since Zelensky has "lost his legitimacy".

ISW previously noted that Ukraine's constitution allows a sitting president to postpone elections and remain in office beyond the end of his term during martial law, which is currently in place in Ukraine due to Russia's full-scale invasion.< /p>

Russian officials' focus on Zelensky's presidential term is just the latest talking point in the Kremlin's ongoing disinformation operation. Antonov also dismissed the upcoming Ukrainian peace conference in Switzerland as pointless and part of an alleged Western effort to legitimize Zelensky's presidency. Ukraine will lose much more territory if the United States continues to ignore Russia's peace proposals, he warned.

Russia is likely helping North Korea develop its defense industrial base in exchange for North Korean munitions supplies. US officials believe Russia may also supply North Korea with military equipment, weapons or technology. NBC reported on May 24, citing six senior US officials, that the Biden administration is concerned that Russian-North Korean relations could help North Korea expand its nuclear capabilities.

U.S. officials have reportedly said that Russia could push North Korea to carry out its "most provocative military action in a decade" close to the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, NBC reported that a senior U.S. official had said that U.S. intelligence officials assessed that Russia was providing North Korea with nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology in exchange for providing Russia with munitions from North Korea.

US officials believe Russia may be helping North Korea develop a long-range ballistic missile. However, NBC noted that they are not aware of what technology Russia is providing to North Korea because it is difficult to detect and trace the exchange.

North Korea may want parts of Russian ballistic missiles, aircraft, missiles and armored vehicles, and that Russia may help it develop its own. Certain facts suggest that Russia is probably helping at the very least. Western officials previously said North Korea had delivered more than one million artillery shells to Russia in 2023.

Although these projectiles are reportedly mostly old, North Korean officials would likely agree to hand over such a large amount of ammunition only if they believed they would be able to replenish their stockpile in the near future.

North Korea's ability to quickly produce such a large amount of projectiles will likely require some Russian funding and assistance.