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ISW: The Kremlin's information war continues on all fronts

Russian President Vladimir Putin grossly distorted the Ukrainian constitution and domestic legislation on May 28, as part of the Kremlin's information operation that his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky is no longer legitimate

Май 29, 2024 07:20 62

ISW: The Kremlin's information war continues on all fronts  - 1

Russian President Vladimir Putin grossly twisted Ukraine's constitution and domestic legislation on May 28 as part of the Kremlin's information operation that his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky was no longer legitimate. Putin said on May 28 during a press conference in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, that the Ukrainian constitution provides for expanding the powers of the Verkhovna Rada, but "does not say anything about the powers of the president.

Putin said Ukraine's martial law law prohibits presidential elections from being held during martial law, which Ukraine was under for one month in 2018 and has been under since the start of the war in 2022, but " this does not mean that the powers of the Ukrainian president have been extended."

Putin cited Article 111 of the Ukrainian constitution, which he said provides that "in this case, presidential powers are transferred to the speaker of the parliament". Putin said that the "only legitimate authority" left in Ukraine is the Verkhovna Rada and its chairman. Putin stated that "if the Verkhovna Rada wanted to hold presidential elections, then martial law would have been lifted and the elections would have been held.

The Constitution of Ukraine states that "if the term of office of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine expires during martial law or a state of emergency, its powers shall be extended until the day of the first meeting of the first session of the Verkhovna Rada elected after the lifting of the martial law or state of emergency" ;. The Law "On the Legal Regime of Martial Law" prohibits the "holding of elections for the President of Ukraine" while martial law is in effect.

This is stated in the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) daily analysis.

However, Putin inaccurately quoted Article 111 of the Ukrainian constitution, which actually reads: "The President of Ukraine may be removed from office by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine by impeachment if he commits treason or another crime.

Article 112 describes how "the performance of the duties of the President of Ukraine for the period before the election and the inauguration of the new President of Ukraine shall be assigned to the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine". It specifies that this transfer of powers from the President to the Speaker applies only "in case of early termination of the powers of the President of Ukraine in accordance with Articles 108, 109, 110, 111 of this Constitution", which describes how "the powers of the President of Ukraine are terminated early in case of resignation, inability to perform their powers due to health, removal from office by impeachment and death.

The Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Ruslan Stefanchuk, directly responded to Putin's deliberate misinterpretation of Ukrainian law, that the laws provide for Zelensky to remain in office until the end of martial law in Ukraine. He advised "curious readers" of the Ukrainian constitution not to be read "selectively".

Putin correctly noted, for the first time on this matter, during his remarks in Tashkent that "this is a preliminary analysis" and "we need to look at it more carefully".

The Russian claims are a well-known Kremlin information operation that Kremlin officials have been using in recent weeks, in part because of foreign audiences. Putin made similar claims while rejecting Zelensky as president of Ukraine during a press conference in Minsk, Belarus on May 24. Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov also denied Zelensky's legitimacy in an interview with Newsweek on May 25.

Putin's May 28 claims are in specific legal jargon and references - largely incorrect or taken out of legal context - to the text of the Ukrainian constitution and laws. Putin is probably deliberately using legal language to make it appear that he is familiar with Ukrainian legal issues and has authority on the matter. The purpose is probably to make listeners believe without checking the facts, as they are generally complicated for many of them. However, the Ukrainian constitution and martial law are not so complex that the average reader cannot understand them.

Russian forces have recently conducted smaller mechanized attacks on multiple operational fronts in the Donetsk region without making significant progress. The aim was probably to test Ukrainian reactions after the first wave of the Russian offensive in the northern part of the Kharkiv region. Footage released on May 27 and 28 shows attacks east of Chasov Yar and east of Novopokrovske (northwest of Avdeevka), as well as near Novomihailovka (southwest of Donetsk city) and in Staromayorske (south of Velika Novosilka).

These Russian mechanized attacks are limited compared to previous ones. They were probably intended to assess the defense capabilities of Ukrainian forces before expected military aid from the West arrived on the front lines

The Committee on Culture of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has endorsed a resolution that recognizes the deliberate erasure of Ukrainian culture as part of Russia's genocidal campaign in occupied Ukraine. The document is consistent with ISW's long-standing assessment that Russia has a strategy based on eradicating Ukraine's national identity and independence. The chairman of the PACE Culture Committee and Ukrainian representative of the ruling party "Servant of the People" Evgenia Kravchuk said on May 28 that the committee unanimously supported her resolution on "Countering the destruction of cultural identity in times of war and peace". It will be voted on in June 2024.

In particular, Russia is recognized as using "cultural purges" as an instrument of war in Ukraine, which shows a "specific genocidal intent to destroy the nation through the destruction of identity and culture".

International legal procedure has not yet created a formal legal definition of cultural genocide, and it is not formally defined in the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. However, the Genocide Convention defines genocidal acts as those which aim to destroy "in whole or in part" certain group, and Russia's pursuit of cultural genocide in Ukraine is expressly designed to destroy the Ukrainian nation and people "in whole or in part".

ISW has already reported on Russian efforts to destroy Ukrainian cultural, linguistic and historical heritage in occupied Ukraine and completely replace it with Russian cultural concepts.

Russia's cultural genocide in Ukraine cannot be seen in isolation from its broader policy in Ukraine, as it is a major component to completely conquer and subjugate Ukraine and its people.

Russian authorities are preparing to step up deportations of Ukrainian children to Russia in the summer of 2024, further consolidating another component of Russia's genocidal campaign in Ukraine. The head of the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) Leonid Pasechnik announced on May 27 that Russian federal subjects (regions that are constituent entities of the Russian Federation) will "host" over 12,000 children from the occupied Luhansk region in 2024 and that the Russian "Polezen Programa "Vacations" will sponsor 40,000 children from occupied Ukraine to "visit" Russia for summer camps and educational activities.

Summer camps for children in occupied Crimea and in Russia await over 600 children from occupied Ukraine throughout the summer, including the summer camp "Ocean" in Vladivostok, Primorsky Krai (which is closer to Alaska than Ukraine).

The Occupation Ministry of Labor of the Kherson Region also announced that an unspecified number of children will travel to the "Ocean" camp. for "educational, sports and cultural program".

The Ukrainian children who were deported to Russia for such "vacations" or "summer camps", are subjected to Russification programs based on isolating them from their Ukrainian families, language, culture and history.

Iran's continued support for Russia's defense industrial base bolsters technological production and military capabilities on the battlefield in Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published a story on May 28 detailing Russian efforts to manufacture Shahed-136/131 drones in the Elabuga Special Economic Zone in the Republic of Tatarstan, using Iranian-supplied technology and a labor force recruited primarily from East Africa.< /p>

WSJ cites the international hacking group Prana Network, which reportedly hacked an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps email server in February 2024 and revealed that Russia intends to produce 6,000 Shahed drones in 2024 alone. The Institute of Science and international security estimated that 4,500 Shaheds had already been produced by the end of April 2024, ahead of schedule, and all 6,000 could be expected by mid-August 2024. Russia is currently producing more advanced models of Iranian Shaheds domestically and is using them extensively , to hit Ukraine.

Russian authorities are recruiting from African countries, especially Uganda, and are particularly luring young women to participate in work and training programs in Elabuga to manufacture Shahed drones. Russia could not have done without the consistent support of Iran.

German publication BILD similarly reported on May 27 that Iran may have supplied Russia with Qaem-5 bombs, which Iran began producing as recently as 2019.

BILD noted that an Iranian-provided Mohajer-6 drone carrying the Qaem-5 bombs crashed in Kursk Oblast for an unknown reason, but Russian forces may have intended to strike Sumy Oblast. ISW has not yet received confirmation that Russia used these projectiles in Ukraine, but their use would be consistent with a pattern of continued and increased Iranian military support for Russia.

The Georgian Parliament overrode Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili's veto on the law on "foreign agents" by a vote of 84 to 4 on May 28. Sixty-six members of the Georgian parliament opposed the presidential veto.

Georgia's constitution requires Zurabishvili to sign and publish the law within three days of the vote, but if she refuses, Georgian parliament speaker Shalva Papuashvili can do so within five days of the vote, which will happen.

Zourabishvili addressed protesters outside the Georgian parliament on May 28 and called for them to collect signatures to allow her to hold a referendum on the bill.

The Georgian service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty noted that Georgia's constitution allows the president to call a referendum at the request of the parliament, the government or at least 200,000 citizens. But holding a referendum requires signatures from both the president and the prime minister in cases where the parliament or citizens want a referendum.

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze is likely to oppose such a referendum. He claims that the adoption of the law on foreign agents will strengthen Georgia's sovereignty and improve its chances of membership in the European Union (EU).

The EU has repeatedly stressed that the Georgian law on foreign agents "contradicts the fundamental principles and values of the EU", that the entry into force of the law "results in a backsliding on at least three of the nine steps" recommended by the Commission of the EU on Georgia's status as an EU candidate and that the law negatively affects Georgia's path to EU membership.

ISW continues to appreciate that the "Georgian Dream" likely intends to purposefully derail the country's long-term efforts at Euro-Atlantic integration, which is linked to Russia's ongoing hybrid operations to divide, destabilize and weaken Georgia.

Both Portugal and Belgium signed long-term bilateral security agreements with Ukraine on 28 May. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Portuguese Prime Minister Luiz Montenegro signed a bilateral security agreement during Zelensky's visit to Lisbon on May 28.

The bilateral security agreement provides for at least €126 million ($138 million) in Portuguese military support to Ukraine in 2024 and reaffirms Portugal's commitment to Ukraine through various international cooperation platforms. Zelensky also met with Belgian Prime Minister Alexandre de Croix in Brussels on May 28 and signed a long-term bilateral security agreement with Belgium that provides for at least 977 million euros ($1 billion) in Belgian military aid to Ukraine in 2024, as well as continued military support over the next 10 years.

Zelensky noted that the bilateral Ukrainian-Belgian agreement also specifies that Belgium will provide 30 F-16s to Ukraine by 2028, including an unspecified number sometime in 2024.

Belgium and Portugal are respectively the eleventh and twelfth countries to sign long-term bilateral security agreements with Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed support on May 28 for removing the Taliban from Russia's list of banned organizations. He stated that it is necessary for Russia to build relations with the Taliban because the Taliban control Afghanistan.

Putin said Russia is taking into account the views of every country in the region surrounding Afghanistan and will work with them when considering whether to recognize the Taliban. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said on May 28 that Russia is close to establishing "full-fledged" relations with the Taliban.

Russia has been in contact with the Taliban since they overthrew the Afghan government in August 2021. The ISW recently assessed that it may be hoping to use its relationship to degrade the Taliban's adversary, the Afghanistan-based "Islamic State-Khorasan Province" , which carried out the Crocus City Hall attack on March 22 in Moscow.

Putin's statement indicates that Russia is likely to follow Central Asian countries in normalizing relations with the Taliban.