Ukraine signed ten-year bilateral security agreements with the United States and Japan on June 13, while other partner countries reaffirmed their long-term support for Ukraine within the G7 and Ramstein formats. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on June 13 that he had signed agreements with his American Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
The US-Ukraine agreement provides for long-term defense and security cooperation, economic recovery and reforms, and the advancement of Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration. The Japan-Ukraine agreement provides $4.5 billion for Ukraine in 2024 and a continued ten-year security and defense support, humanitarian aid, technical and financial cooperation, reconstruction efforts and sanctions against Russia.
This is according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) daily analysis.
Zelensky hailed both agreements as historic breakthroughs for Ukraine's bilateral relations with both the United States and Japan. The British Prime Minister's Office announced on June 12 that Rishi Sunak would announce up to £242 million (about $208 million) in bilateral aid for Ukraine's humanitarian, energy and economic and social needs. French publication France24 reported that the leaders are also finalizing the transfer of up to $50 billion in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine by the end of 2024.
G7 countries have $235 billion in frozen Russian assets and leaders are brokering a deal that would rely on a US-led $50 billion loan to reach Ukraine by the end of 2024 and be " supplemented" with contributions from other allies .
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany on June 12 that NATO partners will agree on a comprehensive package of military and financial assistance to Ukraine during the upcoming NATO summit in July 2024 and stressed that NATO will lead efforts to provide assistance to security and training for Ukraine. Stoltenberg also said that the supply of weapons to Ukraine could become mandatory for NATO members.
The United States has sanctioned the Moscow Stock Exchange, Russian financial institutions and defense manufacturers 839 days after the start of the war in Ukraine. The US Treasury announced on June 12 sanctions against more than 300 individuals and organizations supporting the Russian wartime economy, including the Moscow Stock Exchange and its subsidiaries; large banks such as VTB and "Sberbank"; the state defense conglomerate Rostec, the state space and defense company United Aircraft Corporation, the manufacturer of vehicles and vehicle components Kamaz, the main Russian tank manufacturer Uralvagonzavod and the helicopter design and production company Russian Helicopters.
Great Britain also announced similar sanctions.
The Russian government appears confident that these new sanctions will minimally affect the Russian financial system, and the delay by the US and other Western countries in imposing sanctions on these entities has given the Russian financial system time to prepare and mitigate such sanctions.
Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, complained about the new US sanctions. He argued that Russia is stable enough that it does not need to respond to these sanctions due to economic necessity, but that it must inflict "maximum damage" of the West in response because the United States and its allies "declared war on us (Russia) without rules".
Medvedev's choice to only post this on his Russian-language Telegram account indicates that he likely intends to project strength and stability to a domestic Russian audience rather than addressing an international audience.
Bloomberg estimated on June 13 that the new US sanctions will make it more difficult for Russian businesses to trade on the international market.
A source close to Russia's central bank told Bloomberg that Chinese banks will gradually reduce their cooperation with the Moscow Exchange given these problems, but that those banks will still provide liquidity in yuan to support imports. The source also said there was uncertainty over whether the Russian central bank's new exchange rates would work and how much foreign trade and business costs would rise.
US President Joe Biden reiterated his opposition to allowing Ukrainian forces to strike military targets in Russia's operational or deep rear areas on Russian territory with US-supplied weapons. Biden admitted that "it makes a lot of sense" to allow Ukrainian forces to strike Russian forces on the immediate side of the international border on Russian territory, but the United States has not changed its restrictions prohibiting Ukraine from striking Russia's operational or deep rear in Russian territory.
ISW estimates that the Biden administration's limited policy change, allowing Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons to strike some Russian military targets in a small area within Russian territory, has reduced the size of the ground refuge of Russia with only 16 percent maximum. ISW assesses that the West maintains the ability to significantly disrupt Russian operations at scale by allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied weapons to strike Russia's operational rear and deep rears in Russian territory.
Continued Ukrainian strikes against Russian military targets in occupied Crimea appear to be forcing the Russian military to send additional air defense assets to Crimea to protect existing bases and logistics infrastructure, and further Ukrainian strikes against such air defense assets may make the peninsula unviable as a bridgehead for the Russian army. The head of Ukraine's General Directorate of Military Intelligence (GUR), Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, announced on June 12 that Russian forces had deployed an S-500 air defense system (essentially an upgraded version of the S-300) to Crimea as part of the effort is to strengthen Russia's air defense umbrella over Crimea.
Budanov said Russian forces have not yet used the S-500 air defense system in combat and characterized the system as "experimental". Forbes reported on June 12 that Belbek Airport in occupied Crimea is becoming an "exhaustion trap" for Russian air defenses after several successful Ukrainian strikes on air defenses near the airport. Forbes said Ukrainian forces may have destroyed elements of four or five S-400 batteries during the latest strikes, but noted that the Russian military has more than 50 S-400 batteries. User X (formerly known as Twitter), citing satellite images, noted on June 11 that Russian forces had deployed 17 barges near the bridge over the Kerch Strait, which connects occupied Crimea with Krasnodar Krai.
Zelensky said on June 2 that Russia was using Chinese influence and diplomats to derail the Global Peace Summit. The Kremlin is likely trying to use China's greater diplomatic ties and influence in the world to advance Russian interests.
The United States, United Kingdom, and Canada released a joint statement on July 13 acknowledging and condemning Russian subversion and efforts to interfere in Moldova's election, consistent with ISW's long-standing assessment of the Kremlin's ongoing hybrid campaign to destabilization of Moldovan democracy.
The statement noted that the United States, United Kingdom and Canada share Moldovan President Maya Sandu's concern that the Kremlin is seeking to undermine Moldovan democratic institutions and practices ahead of Moldova's October 2024 presidential election and referendum on membership in the European Union (EU).
The statement noted that the Kremlin uses criminal groups to finance political activities that undermine Moldovan democracy and supports presidential candidates who "exacerbate social tensions". The statement strongly emphasizes the role of Russian disinformation campaigns targeting Moldovan democracy. ISW has written at length about the Kremlin's recent efforts to destabilize Moldova internally, including by supporting pro-Kremlin Moldovan political parties and conducting targeted disinformation campaigns.