Experts believe that if If Ukraine manages to win the war against Russia somewhere, it will be in the annexed Crimea. Already at the beginning of the year, the country's president Volodymyr Zelensky made it clear that the struggle for this peninsula and the Black Sea will play a central role in the coming months. According to Business Insider, Ukraine's success in Crimea will be a serious blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"The defeat of Russia in Crimea would be not just a defeat, but a humiliation," believes Olga Khvostunova, an associate in the "Eurasia" program. at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies.
Strikes in Crimea
Over the past few weeks, the Ukrainian military has launched a series of successful attacks in the region, destroying several Russian air defense batteries and striking Belbek airfield outside Sevastopol.
Elina Beketova, a democracy expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said that these strikes were "successful thanks to extensive preparation and systematic work, better capabilities of the defense forces, satellite and aerial intelligence provided to Ukraine by the NATO allies".
Although Ukraine lost its navy during the annexation of Crimea, it was able to destroy Russia's Black Sea Fleet with the help of naval drones. This allowed the resumption of grain transport across the Black Sea and forced the Russians to hide their ships away from the peninsula.
Maria Snegova, senior research assistant in the program "Europe, Russia and Eurasia" at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, notes that Crimea "is key to Russia's Black Sea access and operations".
"Crimea allows power to be channeled into the rest of the Black Sea. Accordingly, the retention of Russian naval positions in Crimea is of crucial importance for Ukraine," the expert explains.
Thus, the attacks on the peninsula and the enemy fleet are aimed at depriving "Russian forces of the possibility of using the peninsula for attacks against mainland Ukraine", as well as cutting off support for Russian troops in the annexed territories in southern Ukraine.
Demolition of the Crimean Bridge
The destruction of the Crimean bridge could be both a strategic and symbolic victory for Ukraine and a serious blow to Putin. Ukraine has already struck the facility twice, but has so far failed to destroy it. Officials of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GRU) told the Guardian that Ukrainian forces would attack it for a third time before the end of the year.
Crimea will be a target for F-16
Frederik Mertens, a strategic analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague, believes that by attacking air defenses in Crimea, Ukraine is "setting the stage" for future F-16 airstrikes.
"Crimea is vulnerable. The Russians have relatively limited room for maneuver on the peninsula ... Putin has a lot to lose, both politically and militarily. So, if a limited number of fighters can have a real impact, it is here - and over the Black Sea, which becomes fully accessible after the air defenses in Crimea are dismantled," he added.
Russia is known to have re-based its most advanced S-500 air defense system on the peninsula to protect the region from aircraft.
"Russia cannot afford to lose Crimea. This gives Ukraine the opportunity to use the threatened status of Crimea as a bargaining chip in future negotiations," Snegova believes.
At the same time, Beketova is convinced that if Ukraine manages to regain control of the Black Sea, regain the peninsula, or simply put enough pressure on these territories to threaten Putin, "this will mean the end of the war. p>
End of the war? Ukrainian military prepares for F-16 strikes in Crimea
In the past few weeks, the Ukrainian military has launched a series of successful attacks in the region, destroying several Russian air defense batteries and hitting Belbek airfield near Sevastopol
Jun 18, 2024 09:13 315
