Donald Trump, despite his criminal convictions, still leads the race for the presidency in November by about a percentage point nationally and with significant leads in nearly every state where the battle is contested.
Biden's approval rating has reached its lowest level since 2021 and has not exceeded 40% in nine months, Bloomberg wrote in its editorial. Of course, pre-election forecasts can be wrong. Trump could still self-destruct (or indeed go to jail). Voters still don't pay enough attention to that. Things can change. But just five months before the election, the alarm should have gone off.
The president must change course if he wants a second term. Where then should the focus be? Voters consistently say illegal immigration is a major problem. Still, Biden has failed to establish a coherent approach. After dismantling his predecessor's policies, he was slow to take meaningful action when record numbers of undocumented migrants arrived in American cities. He now trails by about 30% on an issue that could prove decisive in November.
This month, the president issued regulations that effectively deny asylum to people who have crossed the border illegally. But the move was late, limited and will be challenged in court. Biden should strengthen enforcement and curb incentives for illegal entry. Blaming the opposition will not work. The same applies to the other main priority of the voters - the economy. Biden deserves credit for the soft landing after the pandemic, for slowing inflation, raising wages and holding back job growth. But voters aren't happy and don't like being told to back off.
Biden trails Trump by nearly 20% on the economy, while nearly two-thirds of voters disapprove of his efforts to reduce inflation. Working-class voters — especially blacks and Hispanics — are leaving in significant numbers, citing living standards as the main reason. Biden's policies fail to address the problem, and too many of them risk compounding it.
His ill-conceived fees will stifle competition and tax American consumers. His effort to relieve $1 trillion in student loan debt is regressive. It must stop subsidizing housing demand while driving up the price of new supply. He must loosen federal contracting and procurement rules that drive up construction costs. He should limit his propaganda about the new regulations. And it should tone down its endless concessions to unions that help a minority of voters at the expense of the majority.
The president cannot keep doing what he is doing and expect a different result. He cannot campaign from the basement as he did during the covid chaos of 2020. He needs a vision for the next four years that will broaden his appeal beyond his current base of lukewarm supporters. If he does not change, the election will be won by Trump.