The Ukrainian army has been expanding its conquests in the Kursk region for two weeks now. It is clear that it controls several hundred square kilometers of Russian territory and has stated that it does not intend to leave the conquered area. As experts tell DW, the offensive in the Kursk region has significantly changed the emotional background in both countries and increased the chances of peace talks, although not in the short term.
Optimism in Kiev, disappointment in Moscow
The offensive in the Kursk region has caused a surge in optimism among Ukrainians, says Ukrainian political scientist Vladimir Fesenko. “People understand that this is unlikely to lead to a quick end to the war. But for most of them, this is a ray of hope after a long period in which the Ukrainian troops were only retreating, there were heavy battles, many problems at the front and in the rear, many reasons for disappointment and discontent, and now the offensive has become a reason for optimism.“
Russian political scientist Abbas Galyamov points out that the reaction in the Kremlin is exactly the opposite: “Disappointment and depression reign there“. Galyamov is convinced that the offensive of the Ukrainian units in the Kursk region has become an unpleasant surprise for the Kremlin. “Everyone hoped that the borders were protected, but it turns out that all available forces were thrown into the Donbass. And it turned out that it was not Ukraine that was exhausted, but Russia that was at the edge of its strength.“
Attempt to influence sentiment in Russia
According to Vladimir Fesenko, one of the goals of the Ukrainian authorities was to try to influence sentiment in Russian society, and he points out that this influence is not unambiguous. “On the one hand, this will cause aggression and hatred towards Ukraine in some, will strengthen calls for the war to be fought to the end, but on the other hand, part of society, especially in the border regions, realizes that the scale of the war is expanding, and that this war must end sooner or later.“
Among other goals of the Ukrainian offensive, the political scientist names taking the initiative. “Paradoxically, this would be difficult, almost impossible to do on Ukrainian territory, because in the south the Russian defense lines are dense and there is no way to make a breakthrough. And in the east, in the Donetsk direction, the Russian troops have a great advantage - they are advancing and there is no way to stop them.“
Are prisoner exchanges and peace talks possible?
Experts are convinced that the main goal of the movement of Ukrainian troops into Russian territory is to maintain a bridgehead on the territory of the other country, thus strengthening Ukraine's position for possible future negotiations. For Galyamov, it is obvious that the conquest of Russian territory is an additional trump card. “If you want to take back the Kursk region, give us back what you took from us. That is obvious.“ According to Fesenko, the following exchange is possible: Ukrainian troops will leave the Kursk region if the Russian military leaves the Kharkiv region. Fesenko believes that the maximum that can be agreed upon is a ceasefire along a certain front line.
The expert does not believe that a larger systemic agreement can be reached between Russia and Ukraine. Because a compromise regarding the status of the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia is not possible. For Fesenko, the situation is hopeless. “Russia will not give us anything, because it has already included part of the occupied Ukrainian territories in its composition. And we will not agree to Crimea, Donbass, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions having Russian status. And here we really reach a dead end.“ The Ukrainian political scientist emphasizes that the agreement on a ceasefire along the front line does not mean Ukraine's renunciation of the territories occupied by Russia. “We have not controlled Crimea and a large part of Donbas for ten years, but that does not mean that we have given up on them.“
There will be negotiations, but not now
Fesenko definitely does not expect peace negotiations to begin in the coming weeks or even months. The explanation: first, Russia will want to take revenge for the loss of part of the territory in the Kursk region - until this task is solved or it is established that it cannot be solved. “Then, after some time, they will come to the idea that they need to negotiate an exchange, but not now.“ The second reason, according to Fesenko, is that Putin is waiting for the results of the US elections. “Putin wants to negotiate not so much with the Ukrainians as with the Americans. That is why he is waiting to see who comes to power - the strategy under Trump will be one, under Kamala Harris - another. “Attempts at real negotiations may not occur before the end of the year, and real negotiations - not before next year“, concludes Fesenko.
“Tactically, it is difficult for Putin to start negotiations now, because it will appear that he is giving in, and he does not want to create such an impression,“ adds Abbas Galyamov. But he believes that in the long term, the chances of negotiations have increased significantly. “Now in Russia they seem to understand that they underestimated Ukraine. And if they suspect that the enemy is ready to strike an unexpected blow at any moment, this circumstance will push them to negotiations.“
However, for negotiations to take place, more active actions are needed from the potential mediators, including to break the emotional deadlock, says Fesenko. “Russia hoped that the negotiations would be held on its terms, and Moscow did not understand that Ukraine would not agree to such negotiations. And now Putin must realize that either there will be negotiations on equal terms, without ultimatums, or the war will continue, including on Russian territory. The situation is now hopeless enough, including emotionally.“
Author: Mikhail Bushuev