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"This situation in Russia will last 10 years at most"

When the era of a dictator like Putin begins to end, his entourage suddenly realizes that reforms are needed, says Russian human rights activist Oleg Orlov

Sep 9, 2024 12:50 113

"This situation in Russia will last 10 years at most"  - 1

Oleg Orlov was among the prisoners exchanged between Russia and the West on August 1 of this year. He has been in Germany ever since. Here's what he says:

„On the one hand was the unexpected, simply intoxicating feeling of freedom, but on the other – a very bitter feeling, because you are looking through a window without bars, but you know that for a very long time you will not be able to see your hometown Moscow” - the Russian human rights defender told ARD.

Russian human rights defenders continue to work

In front of the German public-law media, he emphasized that, despite being under enormous pressure, Russian civil society is still alive. Orlov's associates from the human rights organization “Memorial”, of which he is a co-founder, continue their work – some of them semi-legal, others – totally illegal. Orlov reports that his friends and colleagues from “Memorial“ to this day they organize visits around Moscow – at the sites of political repressions from the Soviet era. They continue to provide support from Russia and abroad to political prisoners.

The human rights defender told ARD that “Memorial“ and other human rights organizations constantly collect information on the state of human rights and political prisoners in Russia. “We provide legal aid to people who have been subjected to torture – not only within the framework of political processes, but also in other criminal proceedings. We help both migrants and people who were forced to flee from the Kursk region, for example.“

Why there are so few protests in Russia

When asked by ARD why there are almost no protests against the regime in Russia, Oleg Orlov says: “Any resistance leads to the point that you can lose your freedom or at least your job. Just mention Navalny's name in a positive light and say that he was not a terrorist and was unjustly convicted, and you can now be accused of participating in a terrorist organization”. Orlov told the German edition that he was in the same cell with a man convicted for this very reason – received seven years behind bars.

„Everyone can judge whether they are ready to protest and resist in these conditions. If you look for the answer to this question, you will understand why there are so few protests in Russia. But still, even under these conditions, there is resistance, Orlov points out. He is adamant that state propaganda has a serious impact and at least partially poisons society. According to the human rights defender, it is clear from sociological surveys that the majority of Russian society is in favor of ending the war on the basis of peace negotiations.

When will the end of the Putin regime come

„I do not expect the collapse of the regime, but I expect its end – at least in view of the biological factor. Putin is already an adult, and in the coming years he will inevitably lose control, including over the power structures. And the older he gets, the more those around him will ponder the question of what will come after him. And the more they think about it, the stronger its influence will decrease”, Orlov told ARD.

The Russian human rights activist notes that Russia's economy has turned out to be much more resilient than expected, but is still at a dead end. “Even if the process of slow decline continues for a few more years, already the people from Putin's close circle will begin to realize that something must be done. The population will also begin to realize this more and more. And that is why I think that the current situation can remain for at most ten years. After which there will either be a collapse or the regime will slowly begin to crumble from within and the elites will have to do something. Until then, civil society and the opposition in Russia, and this one in exile, will have to consider what should happen.“

In front of the German public-law media, Orlov also shares the opinion that when the era of a dictator begins to pass, the so-called elites around him gradually come to understand that reforms are needed. If it comes to that, civil society and the opposition must take the most important role – to exert pressure for real reforms, not cosmetic ones.

Author: Eckart Aretz ARD