In Russia, there is talk again about the possibility of announcing a new mobilization - against the background of the announced increase in the number of the army by another 180 thousand people. Thus, it will reach a total of 2.4 million. In addition to the decree signed by the president for this, the new electronic register of call-ups also began work in October - it is planned that the call-up for compulsory military service will be automatic. If they do not report to the conscription bureau, the rights of the conscripts will be restricted.
This gives the authorities the opportunity to announce a new mass mobilization in this way, experts commented to DV. But the register for the electronic call center is not completely ready, and the Ministry of Defense actively continues to sign contracts in various regions of the Russian Federation, comment other experts, who rule out a new wave of mobilization in the near future.
Autumn conscription - under new rules
The current offensive to recruit 133 thousand soldiers differs from the previous ones, says Ivan Chuvilyaev, a representative of the human rights project "Seize the forest". Now the military commissions are not required to personally notify the conscript about the call-up letter - it is considered served after it is published in his profile in the state online system. The new register for military conscription must provide information about the conscript to the various state authorities, for example to prevent him from leaving the country.
However, the human rights defender notes that the Russian authorities fail to use this resource to its full potential: "It doesn't work. It has a single purpose: to create a false impression among recruits that they are already on the register." Chuvilyaev explains that the authorities can send summons electronically, but cannot limit the rights of conscripts: "This is a huge database that can hardly be connected between different departments.
He adds that the Ministry of Digitization has officially announced the postponement of the full functioning of this register to the beginning of 2025. Meanwhile, Chuvilyaev expects the authorities to carry out a new mobilization anyway, given the mounting losses in the war against Ukraine.
Why are the Russian authorities postponing the new mobilization?
The "Partial mobilization", which began in September 2022 and allowed more than 300,000 people to be sent to the army, is actually continuing, says former deputy of the Moscow Municipal Council Yevgeny Stupin. During the mobilization, he and other deputies sent an official request to the Russian president to issue a decree to end it, but they were refused. Stupin was later stripped of his parliamentary mandate and declared a "foreign agent" in the Russian Federation. Stupin says that after the first wave of mobilization, some regions "selectively" have continued to enlist in the army to "carry out the draft plan". But in most cases they recruit volunteers for the war through a system of financial incentives, fearing a rise in anti-war sentiment in the public, he suggests.
For now, anti-war protests by relatives of those mobilized are weak, Stupin notes, because in many regions the war is perceived as a kind of "natural disaster" - something to be endured. But this may change if, in the event of a second wave of mobilization, more people from the families of those already mobilized are called into the army. "There is already an organizational structure of the relatives of the mobilized". He advises potential conscripts not to rely on the deferral system, which de facto does not work under the current conditions in Russia: "It is best not to go to the draft office at all, so as not to end up at the front.< /p>
A new mobilization is not needed due to the influx of volunteers
Ruslan Leviev, founder of the independent analytical group ConflictIntelligenceTeam, has a different opinion. He believes that the Russian army has no shortage of soldiers. According to him, "at least this year no mobilization is expected". The military analyst gives as an example data on the expenditures from the Russian federal budget for payments to hired soldiers. "It turned out that 30,000 people were recruited every month," he says. Against this background, however, the problem of mobilization in Ukraine is becoming more and more serious. "Ugledar has been captured, and judging by the footage of the Russian military, they have entered an almost empty town and met no resistance.
Information from public sources shows that the Russian command is not worried about its losses - as long as enough new reinforcements are provided from inside the country, says Alexandra Garmazhapova, founder of the "Free Buryatia" foundation.