If the Joe Biden administration has indeed asked Israel not to strike targets in Iran's nuclear program and oil and gas production facilities, that is both bad news and good news for Vladimir Putin . Bad, because if Iran's facilities were defeated, the price of oil would probably skyrocket and bring additional revenue to the Kremlin. In 2025, the Russian regime intends to allocate 40 percent of the state budget to the war - a situation in which there is no surplus money. But at the same time, this is good news for the Kremlin: Iran's nuclear facilities, built with the help of Russia, will not be threatened.
Of course, there is no guarantee that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will necessarily comply with the White House's demands. But the probability that he will take no action at least until the presidential elections in the USA is quite high.
Assault rifles for the Houthis, missiles for Putin
Meanwhile, Putin continues his cooperation with the Iranian regime. He met with the new president Massoud Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan. By the end of the month, Moscow and Tehran are expected to sign a strategic partnership agreement similar to the one Russia has already concluded with North Korea.
In addition, according to the "Wall Street Journal" the pro-Kremlin "merchant of death" Victor Booth is "back in the game". He is said to have discussed in Moscow the possibility of supplying small arms to Iran's allies, the Yemeni Houthis. That, of course, pales in comparison to the surface-to-ship missiles the Houthis use in the Red Sea, and which Moscow may also supply to Tehran's Yemeni allies. Iran is not obliging and is helping Russia replenish its stockpile of missiles to fire at Ukraine. Added to this are the numerous videos of Russian (as well as Chinese and North Korean) weapons captured by the Israeli military in Hezbollah and Hamas armories.
Iran is helping Russia in its war against Ukraine. Russia is helping Iran threaten peaceful shipping in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, shell Israel, and maintain de facto military control over Lebanon.
Putin, Trump and "regime change" in Iran
The question is, will things change after the inauguration of the new American president in January 2025? It matters not only who will become president, but also which party will get a majority in the Senate. If the White House and the Senate are controlled by different parties, we probably shouldn't expect dramatic changes in American politics. However, if Kamala Harris wins and the Senate majority remains Democratic, the White House is likely to try to revive the 2015 multilateral international agreement on Iran's nuclear program reached under Barack Obama.
If Donald Trump wins the election and a Republican majority is established in the Senate, things will be different. In 2018, he withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal. His administration pursued an uncompromisingly hardline policy toward Iran, and if he wins, Trump is likely to resume that policy. I do not rule out Washington betting even on an attempt to change the regime in Tehran. Moreover, one of the main foreign policy goals of any US administration will be to promote the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which the Iranians are trying to prevent in every possible way.
Israel is already conducting an active propaganda campaign in Iran, which is apparently aimed at shaking the foundations of the regime in the Islamic Republic. Perhaps the most prominent figure in the Iranian opposition - Prince Reza Pahlavi - has also been very active recently. Under Trump's administration, regime change may become Washington's policy.
In that case, limiting military cooperation with Iran and its allies may prove to be the price Putin is willing to pay for a ceasefire in Ukraine on terms favorable to Russia. The probability of this happening today is small, but it is there. In addition, if Washington bets on the overthrow of the Iranian regime, the Kremlin will certainly not want to openly side with Tehran.
Will there be a proposal to "swap Ukraine for Iran"? If so, by whom? And what will American senators and European NATO allies say in such a case? Now no one can answer these questions. But it is clear that for the Russian regime Ukraine is much more important than the fate of Ayatollah Khamenei and all the seemingly important political ties with the countries of the "global South".