The election shock in Japan, a key U.S. security ally in Asia, and the potential destabilization of the United States after next week's presidential election, are giving China and other rivals a chance to test the West's resolve in East Asia, BTA writes, citing "Reuters".
According to some analysts, China could increase its incursions into Japanese airspace and maritime violations and step up its pressure on Taiwan, while North Korea, which is deepening its security cooperation with Russia, could intensify its ballistic missile tests. Sunday's parliamentary elections in Japan dealt the country's long-ruling coalition its heaviest defeat in 15 years. To retain control of the powerful lower house of parliament, it must now rely on the support of opposition parties.
"From Beijing's perspective, this (election result) signals an ideal scenario: Japan's political demobilization," said Tomohiko Taniguchi, a former adviser to the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who steered the country away from decades of pacifist policies. "Violations of Japan's airspace and waters are likely to increase, and military provocations toward Taiwan could become routine," he added. In the run-up to the election, both Tokyo and Washington pledged their commitment to Japan-US security cooperation. Beijing said the vote was Japan's "internal matter".
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has ruled Japan almost invariably since the end of World War II. But it and its coalition partner failed to secure a majority in the new parliament, in yet another sign that disaffected voters are rejecting established parties in U.S. allies. This was also evident in recent elections in France and Germany.
While the two countries are vital to Europe’s NATO-backed defense, Japan is critical to Washington’s security strategy in Asia. Japan is home to the largest U.S. military presence overseas. The archipelago stretches from Taiwan to the Russian Far East and could serve as a frontline defense against North Korean missiles.
China’s military activity around Taiwan and its territories has escalated. It has also been conducting increasingly regular joint exercises with Russia and in August violated Japanese airspace for the first time. In response, Tokyo has embarked on the largest military buildup since World War II. In 2022, the Japanese government unveiled a plan to double spending on new weapons, including long-range missiles capable of hitting targets on the Chinese mainland.
“If Japan gives any indication that its defense policy initiatives might slow down or become less ambitious, it will embolden China and North Korea to say that Japan is weak and undermine Washington's efforts to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance,“ said Nicholas Széchenyi, an expert on U.S.-Japan relations at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S. think tank.
This comes ahead of the possible election of Republican Donald Trump as president. During his 2017-2021 presidency, Trump has tried to force Tokyo to pay more for U.S. military support. Polls show that the gap between him and his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, is extremely narrow. After he lost the 2020 election, Trump supporters stormed the Capitol as part of his attempt to change the outcome of the vote. He said that another defeat would be due to fraud and that he would not accept the results.
RIPTORS SMILING
“I don't think Japan will back down from defending its national security, but there is no doubt that the distraction would make it difficult for it to take active action,“ said Joseph Kraft, a financial policy analyst at Rorschach Consulting in Tokyo. “I'm sure Western rivals are smiling,“ he added.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said at a news conference yesterday that he would uphold the LDP's commitment to defense spending and deepening security ties with Washington. U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller echoed the sentiment, saying the U.S.-Japan relationship is a "cornerstone" of peace and security around the world and that he does not expect the election results in either country to change that.
Washington has come to rely increasingly on Tokyo as China's military power grows. In April, the two allies announced a historic revamp of their military alliance, including plans to jointly develop missiles and revamp the structure of the U.S. military command in Japan. Now, the possibility of power-sharing agreements between the LDP and smaller parties, which won many voters with their tax-cutting promises, will further complicate the difficult question of how Japan will finance key defense projects, said Tobias Harris, an expert at political risk consultancy Japan Foresight.
"Governments that are formed under these conditions are the type that won't be able to raise taxes," Harris explained. The Democratic Party for the People – one of the opposition parties that may somewhat support the LDP in parliament, promised during its election campaign to reduce the 10 percent sales tax, lower income taxes, cut social security contributions and eliminate high school tuition fees.
But with the plan to build up Japan's defenses more than 50 percent complete, the LDP should also start discussing the next steps in Japan's defense strategy and decide how much more money should be spent, said Kevin Maher, a consultant who previously headed the Japan Affairs Office at the U.S. State Department. "The question is to what extent the government... can take the initiative, because the process will start very soon," Maher added. "It's good when the United States is divided, to have stability in Japan," the American expert concluded.