Ukraine received permission to use US ATASMS missiles to strike targets inside Russian territory and is already using them. What missiles can do, what advantages they have and will they lead to a turning point in the war.
What is ATACMS?
The abbreviation ATACMS stands for Army Tactical Missile System. It is a short-range missile manufactured by the American arms company Lockheed Martin. Available in versions with different ranges. The first version, which the US delivered to Ukraine in 2023, has a maximum range of 165 km. Later, the armed forces of Kiev received ATACMS with a range of up to 300 kilometers.
ATACMS can be equipped with cluster munitions that inflict damage over a wide perimeter from the point of impact. However, cluster munitions are highly contested internationally as they pose a risk to the civilian population even years after the military conflict has ended. In the war in Ukraine, such munitions were also supplied to Kiev to compensate for Russia's huge ammunition advantage. In addition, cluster munitions can be used particularly effectively against troops and unarmored vehicles in open terrain.
ATACMS are launched from mobile HIMARS or MLRS M270 rocket launchers. They reach their target in less than five minutes - significantly faster than other short-range missiles. But they fly at a relatively high altitude and therefore can be more easily detected and shot down by enemy air defenses. This distinguishes ATACMS from cruise missiles, for example the German "Taurus" or the British "Storm Shadow" missiles.
Where can ATACMS be used?
ATASMS are designed to strike enemy troops and equipment far behind the front line. With a range of up to 300 kilometers, the Ukrainians can also hit targets inside Russia with them.
This has the potential to significantly change the war, which - with the exception of isolated Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian military infrastructure - has so far been fought only on Ukrainian territory.
Until now, ATASMS missiles were used only on Ukrainian territory - for the first time in 2023 and in the spring of 2024. After the US allowed Ukraine to use ATASMS deep into Russian territory, Ukraine reported the first such attack today, citing Ukrainian military sources. Before the American "Washington Post" a source from Kyiv also reported that it was an attack with American missiles. The information was also confirmed by the Kremlin. The rockets were fired at a weapons depot near the town of Karachev in the Bryansk region.
Can ATACMS also hit targets in Moscow?
No, they cannot, because Moscow is too far from the front - about 500 kilometers from the border with Ukraine. And St. Petersburg is even further – about 1000 kilometers away. But Russian military bases and command centers, which play an important role in supplying Russian troops, would be within range. It is not yet known whether the Ukrainian army has received the green light for attacks in other areas besides Kursk.
Does the US decision lead to escalation?
At least that is what the Russian leadership claims. According to him, this creates a "fundamentally new situation regarding the participation of the United States in this conflict". German Foreign Minister works Analena Berbock has a different opinion. She emphasizes that Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. and that since then Ukraine has been defending itself. Ukraine's self-defense is now expressed in "being able to destroy military launchers," says Berbok, quoted by ARD. This is "within the framework of international law, of the right of self-defense,", she emphasizes.
Can ATACMS turn the tide of war?
Such an expectation would surely be exaggerated. In any case, the US warned back in the spring that ATASMS should not be considered a miracle weapon. But the speed of these missiles represents an additional challenge for the command of the Russian army and air defense, the publication of the German publication further states.
The Russian command may now be forced to move some of its weapons to more distant bases to put them beyond the reach of ATACMS. Military experts even suggest that this may have already been done as the American decision was expected.
Is it related to Trump's election victory?
At the very least, this cannot be ruled out. During the election campaign, US President-elect Donald Trump and part of his future administration repeatedly criticized the amount of US aid to Ukraine and expressed a desire to reduce it. Trump himself has said that he will end the war within 24 hours and appears ready to start negotiations with Russia. In this regard, maybe Biden wants to strengthen Ukraine militarily first and thus improve its starting position in future negotiations.
Will German "Taurus" missiles also be delivered now?
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has so far denied this, and now a spokesman for his government said the US decision would not change Germany's position. Obviously, Berlin is careful not to do things that could be interpreted as participation in the war.
However, the debate is ongoing, and the changing majorities in the Bundestag are also having an impact. For example, the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) plans to initiate a new vote in the Bundestag on the delivery of Taurus missiles. of Ukraine. In the previous one in March, then introduced by the CDU/CSU, the liberals voted against it, but now it is different. However, this is still not enough for a majority in the Bundestag - the CDU/CSU and the SDP together would have 286 votes, and at least 367 votes are needed for a majority. Support may come from the Greens, whose leading candidate for the upcoming early elections, Robert Habek, has said that if he were to lead the government, he would supply Ukraine with "Taurus" cruise missiles.