The political crisis in Venezuela has reached a new climax. After the presidential election in July 2024, the results of which are strongly contested by the opposition and the international community, the current President Nicolas Maduro and the opposition candidate Edmundo González are locked in a fierce battle for power.
The government-controlled electoral commission declared Maduro, who has been in office for almost twelve years, the winner. However, the opposition claims that the vote was falsified and that the real winner, by a large margin, is González, who was later granted political asylum in Spain. The United States and several Latin American countries also consider Gonzalez the winner.
The government accuses the opposition of fomenting fascist plots against Maduro and has issued an order to detain Gonzalez if he returns to the country. The opposition leader has threatened to do so precisely for taking the presidential oath. His team also reported that his son-in-law has been kidnapped.
Maduro's "victory" is not internationally recognized
While the government-controlled electoral commission declared Maduro the winner, the United States, Canada and several Latin American countries recognize Gonzalez as the legitimate winner of the election. The European Union also does not recognize Maduro's victory.
The current president of Venezuela, however, is preparing to officially take the oath for a new term. Gonzalez is expected to return to Caracas for the ceremony. He risks arrest if he does so. The government in Caracas even announced a reward of $100,000 for his capture.
At the same time, Maduro has stepped up his threats against opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. Since the elections, she has been hiding in a secret location, as, like Gonzalez, she has an arrest warrant issued for conspiracy, sabotage and attempted coup d'état. On the eve of Maduro's swearing-in ceremony today, Machado returned to the public sphere and even took part in an anti-government rally. After the event, she was briefly detained, but was later released. According to the opposition movement "Vente Venezuela", Machado was forced to record several videos in detention, Reuters reported. Other details are not yet known.
Will Gonzalez return?
Gonzalez has visited several countries on the continent. From his first stop in Argentina last week, he sent a clear message that he considers himself the legitimate president of Venezuela and that he wants to defend the mandate of the Venezuelan people.
After Argentina, he went successively to Uruguay, the United States, Panama and the Dominican Republic, where he was received by high-ranking politicians. Outside Washington, he met with US President Joe Biden, who unconditionally accepts him as the elected president of Venezuela.
"Gonzalez has managed to mobilize broad international support, especially in countries that uphold democratic values," explains Ramon Cardoso, a political scientist at the University of Montevideo. in Caracas.
High tension ahead of inauguration
The situation in Caracas is explosive after both camps called for mass protests. While Maduro's government mobilized its supporters to celebrate his new term, the opposition called on people to take to the streets and protest against electoral abuses.
At the same time, the government mobilized a large contingent of security forces in Caracas. Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello urged people not to attend the opposition protests: "Those who decide to participate will regret it for the rest of their lives," he threatened.
The German public broadcaster ARD quoted Benigno Alarcon, director of the Center for Political Studies at the "Andrés Bejo" Catholic University in Caracas, who says the government relies on clientelism among groups that benefit economically from Maduro's rule. Maduro's loss of power would come at a high price, for example, for the military, which supports the crackdown on Maduro's opponents.
The role of the international community
The United States has already threatened Nicolas Maduro with new sanctions if he is sworn in for a new term. The Organization of American States (OAS) has called for an independent investigation into the elections, as well as dialogue between the parties to the conflict.
However, according to Cardoso, it is not clear whether international pressure alone will be enough. "The situation in Venezuela is a textbook example of how the discrepancy between the will of the people and the structures of de facto power can plunge a nation into crisis." With González's announced return and the planned protests, the country is at a decisive turning point.