If the new US administration in the person of Donald Trump abandons Ukraine, then Russian tanks will appear on the Polish border and NATO will lose strategic positions. This is one of the possible scenarios for the outcome of the war in Ukraine, described by The Times.
The worst possible scenario is that Russia will continue the war for a long time and avoid negotiations. In this case, if Ukraine remains without US support, it could suffer a military defeat. Trump, given his criticism of the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan, will be wary of such a catastrophic outcome.
The defeat of Ukraine would have serious consequences for global security. Millions of Ukrainian refugees will seek salvation abroad, and thousands remaining in Ukraine will end up in Russian prisons. NATO will lose strategic positions, and Putin’s tanks will appear on the borders of Poland.
The second scenario is not much better than the first. In this case, Ukraine, deprived of proper Western support, will be forced to make concessions from a position of weakness, concluding an agreement providing for the division of the country and the creation of a pro-Russian government. This will be a triumph for Russia, a tangible defeat for Ukraine and its allies. No Nobel Prize is expected for Trump here.
The third scenario assumes a cessation of hostilities. If this becomes part of the transition to a comprehensive peace agreement, it could stabilize the region and preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty, while respecting international security guarantees. However, if the ceasefire is not accompanied by a peace agreement, it will only freeze the conflict. As the experience of the Minsk agreements shows, this will leave room for a new stage of the war, when Russia decides to resume the offensive.
The fourth scenario is the greatest hope for Ukraine. It envisages strengthening Kiev's position with US support for negotiations from a position of strength. This would allow for an agreement to be concluded that would guarantee economic viability, sovereignty and security guarantees. In the current situation, a return to the 1991 borders is unlikely. Strengthening Ukraine's position will require decisive action by the US, including sanctions against Russia, military support and economic assistance.
Ukraine will probably be forced to agree to certain territorial concessions. A survey by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology showed that already 32% of Ukrainians are ready to consider such steps for the sake of peace. With reliable guarantees from the United States, this figure could increase.