Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that at least 200,000 European peacekeepers would need to be deployed in Ukraine to prevent a new Russian attack after a possible ceasefire agreement, Reuters reported. The Ukrainian leader made the remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, a day after Donald Trump returned to power in the United States with promises to quickly end the war in Ukraine.
The prospect of a quick settlement of the conflict has made politicians in Kiev and in Europe focus on the urgent need for security guarantees to prevent any future Russian attack, with the idea of deploying peacekeeping forces spreading in political circles, Reuters reports.
A few days later, Zelensky indicated that the size of the necessary contingent would depend on the strength of the Ukrainian army, the newspaper “Kiev Independent“ reports. Since Kiev will hardly be able to maintain a million-strong army needed to repel future Russian aggression, the deployment of such forces will depend on the support of the United States and Europe, he explained.
If it turns out that the United States and Europe are unwilling to help maintain such a large army and Ukraine reduces its number "by 200,000, 300,000 or 500,000 people, this means that other troops will have to replace them," Zelensky added.
The president's conclusion was that, given these options, Ukraine's accession to NATO is the cheapest way to achieve a stable peace for both Ukraine and the West, the publication states. At the same time, Zelensky acknowledged that some members of the alliance - namely the United States, Germany, Slovakia and Hungary - continue to be reluctant to allow Ukraine into the military alliance.
Zelensky is in contact with a number of European leaders about the prospects for creating a peacekeeping mission - an initiative that French President Emmanuel Macron first mentioned last year, writes “Kyiv Independent“. During his visit to Kiev on January 16, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also stated that his country would play its “full role” in supporting efforts to maintain lasting peace in Ukraine.
The idea also found support from US President Donald Trump, who called on Europe to take greater responsibility for Ukraine's security, the publication notes.
Talks about European peacekeepers may have begun, but no one has any idea how to move the conversation forward, the magazine comments. “Politico“.
“This is the most critical decision Europeans will have to make in 2025,“ says Franz-Stefan Gaddy, a former high-ranking Austrian military officer and current fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
According to two European diplomats, current talks are focused on deploying a deterrent force of up to 50,000 troops from five or six European countries to guard the demarcation line between Ukrainian and Russian forces in the event of a ceasefire agreement being negotiated, the magazine said. Another European security official said the British and French have already begun planning for such a deployment. Few other Western leaders, however, have expressed a willingness to put their own troops in danger, Politico reported. If Ukraine does not join NATO in the near future, which is unlikely while the war is ongoing, some kind of plan involving peacekeepers is the only possible solution, Gady said. “The consequences of a ceasefire that is not monitored, not supported [by] European forces, not supported [by] US forces, will most likely be another war, but a bloodier and more destructive one,” he said. The prospect of deploying peacekeepers seemed to be finally gaining momentum late last year, and French President Emmanuel Macron sensed the opportunity and arrived on a hastily arranged visit to Warsaw to win over the Poles, writes “Politico“. However, the talks stopped before they could really begin. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told journalists that he wanted to “put an end to all speculation“ on this topic. Macron, in turn, cut short his visit, allegedly for domestic political reasons.
"It is a process that starts and then stops many times", says Nicolas Tenzer, a professor at the Institute of Political Science in Paris. "There is a lot of hesitation. Emmanuel Macron has been pushing this idea very hard ... and my impression is that talks are ongoing with a number of countries, including the UK, the Baltics and Scandinavian countries and possibly the Czechs," he adds.
According to Tenzer and other analysts, the hesitation is due to the risks of deploying troops in Ukraine, the lack of certainty about the possibility of negotiating a lasting ceasefire and uncertainty about Trump's intentions.
Any potential peacekeeping force would have to be agreed with Russia and Ukraine, notes François Haisburg, a senior adviser at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"This is purely hypothetical," says Haisburg. "It will be extremely difficult to get the Europeans to agree among themselves, and it will be almost as difficult to get Ukraine and Russia to agree on a resolution [of the conflict]," he said.
The idea of deploying European peacekeepers could prove extremely unpopular among the European public, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty commented. Opinion polls in Western Europe consistently show low levels of support for sending troops to Ukraine, and the risks of sending such a contingent would be enormous, the media outlet noted.
Macron is already backed to the wall after losing his majority in France's National Assembly, the radio noted. Starmer has just returned his Labour Party to power after 14 years in opposition. Both leaders have a lot to lose by deploying their troops to Ukraine, where they would be in grave danger.
However, some analysts say the situation on the battlefield could deteriorate so much that European leaders would feel compelled to act, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty points out.
“If you are Poland, the prospect of Ukraine breaking up with millions of refugees pouring across your borders and Russian forces closing in on your border is much, much worse than the prospect of having to do more to shore up the current front line in Ukraine,“ said Ian Bond, deputy director of the Center for European Reform think tank.
For now, Europe needs to think long and hard about the future of its relationship with Ukraine and why it matters to European security beyond the rhetoric of support for Kiev "for as long as necessary," says Gady. One thing is certain - at some point Trump will turn to the Europeans and tell them that Ukraine is their problem, and he may have already done so, the expert summarizes.