Since the end of the Balkan wars in the 1990s, the United States has been one of the main guarantors of stability and development in the West Balkans. The country follows a three-pronged approach to engagement in the region, which is extremely important to it. But are things changing? The answer to the question is found in a new report, cited by SeeNews.
Πpvo, America has strengthened security in the region by expanding its membership in HATO to half the country and maintaining a military presence in Kosovo. However, the US plays a diplomatic role, mediating key political agreements, such as the Dayton and Brussels Agreements, while also using coercive measures such as sanctions. Third, the country supports economic development through government-backed investment, private sector engagement, and initiatives that promote regional trade.
Together, these efforts are aimed at advancing both regional stability and Euro-Atlantic integration, the latter of which will culminate in accession. to the EC.
This paradigm will likely change during the second administration of US President Donald Trump. This is nothing new for Trump. ΠMy previous administration was largely unengaged with the Western Balkans, leaving the existing policy largely intact, which at the same time prevented an open approach to some authoritarian leaders.
Economic cooperation was guaranteed by American investment - as an incentive for normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo, which at the time blocked Chinese competition. The change in practice under Trump was more tonal than substantive. The administration of President Joe Biden followed a similar approach.
The US commitment was shaped around democracy and values, but regional stability was prioritized over democratic improvement, as governments were offered carrots and sticks to counter Russian and Chinese influence. Today, it seems unlikely that Donald Trump's second administration will show any greater interest in the Western Balkans. However, broader changes in US foreign policy will have direct consequences for the region.
In fact, Trump's long-standing hostility to HATO, combined with his transactional approach to diplomacy, could potentially leave the Western Balkans without an important mediator at the same time that their security architecture is being overhauled. before profound changes.
Security
The security architecture of much of the Western Balkans is built on NATO, where the US is still the dominant state. Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia are members of the alliance, while Kosovo is a protectorate. These countries could, in theory, count on the support of their NATO allies, including the United States, in the event of an armed conflict.
And there are signs that the Donald Trump administration will reduce US military commitments abroad, including in NATO missions. The aim is to put pressure on Europe to take primary responsibility for its own security and that of its neighbors.
American military aid and arms transfers to the Western Balkans are already entering a period of uncertainty. The 90-day freeze on foreign aid from the US presidential administration, introduced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the end of January 2025, effectively puts all security assistance under control.
The key programs in this regard are Foreign Military Sales (FMS), Foreign Military Financing (FMF), and Excess Defense Articles (EDA). While FMS will continue, changes to FMF and EDA are likely to be questionable because they rely on grants, which the Trump administration is skeptical of. These changes suggest that U.S. engagement with regional security will be fragmented and selective, at best driven not by long-term alliance building but by an assessment of whether such support brings immediate and tangible benefits.
Diplomacy
The diplomatic approach of the Donald Trump administration is likely to will repeat my past actions, reduce engagement, unless he sees clear opportunities for quick and symbolic "victories". &Prior to this, this relationship is ensured by the agreements for economic normalization of Kosovo and Serbia, which were concluded by Trump in 2020. This was a wish list of cross-border economic initiatives, the implementation of which was expected to stimulate further cooperation. However, the agreements did not deliver results.
What are the EC's countermeasures?
Of the 16 commitments in the 2020 Agreement, only three have been fully implemented in the last five years. B The Western Balkans is an example of the "big deal" between Serbia and Kosovo could include a land swap - an idea mooted during the first Trump administration.
One such deal would involve a land swap along ethnic lines, with Serbia getting Serb-majority areas in northern Kosovo, and Kosovo getting Albanian-majority areas in Serbia. like the valley of Πreshevo. Although at first glance attractive as a simple transactional correction of a frozen conflict, this will invariably meet with obstacles.
Πrvo, this is a strongly contested moment even in Donald Trump's circle. However, Kosovo's government is led by Prime Minister Albin Kërti, whose Movement for Self-Determination (LVV) is strongly opposed to such a decision. After losing an absolute majority in the parliamentary elections in February, however, LVV will require a coalition partner whose reliability is not guaranteed.
As for sanctions, in the Western Balkans they function as a bulwark supporting US diplomatic efforts, exerting pressure on political leaders to uphold peace agreements, democratic reforms, and geopolitical positions, which they now call corruption.
The Joe Biden administration, over the last week of his administration renewed existing sanctions related to the Western Balkans, expanding the criteria for blocking the assets and suspending the entry into the United States of various individuals and company leaders.
Economic Engagement
ΠUS President Donald Trump has consistently sought to change international agreements in business-like deals from which the United States benefits directly, usually through sales or investments, rather than through grants or loans. This strategy has led to a shift away from agreements that promise long-term partnerships and development toward open trade relations. Moreover, the current administration has no vested interest in upholding anti-corruption standards.
ΠIn February, it suspended the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act on national security grounds, which had restricted the ability of American companies to secure "business advantages" in strategic sectors such as critical minerals, deep-sea ports and infrastructure. This strategy is likely to be applied in the Western Balkans, as American companies try to gain an edge, especially over Chinese competitors.
As an Anglo-Australian venture, Rio Tinto's lithium mine in Jadar, Serbia, is a key example of projects that are in line with the strategic priorities of Trump administration. The project ensures Western investors control over critical minerals that will supply Europe. The investment is controversial and has sparked public protests across the country over concerns about environmental damage, lack of transparency, and perceived prioritization of corporate and geopolitical interests over local communities.
Serbia's Supreme Court Lifts Ban on Rio Tinto's $2.4 Billion Lithium Project - What's Next
Serbia's Supreme Court lift ban on Rio Tinto's $2.4 billion lithium project - what's next
According to the court, the Serbian government has "overstepped the bounds of its competence"
The Donald Trump administration will continue to create opportunities to facilitate the entry of liquefied natural gas (LNG) into the region. For example, he will likely push for the implementation of the proposed LNG terminal at the port of Blërë in Albania, whose development is at a standstill.
"A small interest"?
In a sense, the Western Balkans are of little interest to Donald Trump, so their combined economic influence is modest. And yet the region is of strategic importance due to its proximity to the EU, as well as the great interest that countries like China, Russia, and Turkey have in these countries.
ΠThe policy changes introduced by Trump reduce the incentives for countries in the region to improve their governance. This is not to say that the regional policies of previous US administrations were ever perfect. In fact, things look even worse now.
Meanwhile, US investment is likely to become more corporate-oriented, with large energy and infrastructure deals, but with fewer safeguards. Investors should prepare for a higher-risk environment where political positioning will be key to securing opportunities and mitigating geopolitical risk exposure.