ISW: Russia will not be able to seize half of Ukraine by the end of 2026 if Western aid to Kiev continues

Russia is unlikely to be able to achieve its goal of seizing half of Ukraine by the end of 2026, given the current offensive capabilities of Russian troops and Western aid to Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in a report dated June 6.

The experts analyzed the statement of the Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Pavlo Palisa, who announced Russia's desire to seize the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by September 1, 2025 and to create a buffer zone along the northern Ukrainian-Russian border by the end of 2025. He also stated that the Russian side intends to occupy all of Ukraine along the eastern (left) bank of the Dnieper River and capture the Odessa and Nikolaev regions by the end of 2026, depriving Ukraine of access to the Black Sea.

Thus, by the end of next year, the Russian Federation intends to seize 336 thousand square kilometers of Ukrainian territory out of a total area of over 603 thousand.

ISW believes that Russia will not be able to implement these plans, given the significant losses in manpower and equipment during the three years of the war and the inability of Russian forces to achieve operational maneuverability on the battlefield.

Analysts point out that Russian forces will be able to achieve the stated goals on the front only if the situation on the front line changes dramatically in the near future, for example, if Russia suddenly resumes operational maneuvers or Ukrainian defense lines suddenly collapse.

Previously, ISW estimated that Delays in Western aid to Ukraine in 2023 and 2024 have given Russia enough leverage to regain the initiative on the battlefield. The Kremlin is currently making significant efforts to convince the West of Ukraine's “inevitable defeat” and the need to withdraw its support. ISW calls this Vladimir Putin's “only real hope”.

"ISW continues to assess that Western aid remains vital to Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian aggression and is crucial to ensuring a just and lasting peace in Ukraine and long-term security in Europe. "Russia is unlikely to capture half of Ukraine if the international coalition continues its support", the report says.

In particular, the Institute for the Study of War believes that Russia will not even be able to capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast by September 1, 2025. Russian troops have advanced only 30-50 km from the outskirts of Avdiivka to the outskirts of Pokrovsk over the past 15 months, which is much slower than what would be needed to capture the entire Donetsk Oblast by September.

It will also be difficult for Russian troops to capture the rest of Kherson Oblast, as this would require crossing the Dnieper, securing the western (right) bank, and reoccupying Kherson. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian troops have conducted successful large-scale operations to cross the Dnieper since the withdrawal of Russian troops from the left bank of the Kherson region in November 2022, analysts emphasize.

In turn, a simultaneous offensive in northern Ukraine to achieve the Kremlin's goals would disperse Russian manpower and materiel along the entire 1,000-kilometer front line and would likely further deepen existing restrictions.

The ISW adds that the plans to seize half of Ukraine go far beyond Russia's official territorial ultimatums. To implement them, Moscow would need to take control of nine regional centers - the cities of Zaporizhia, Odessa, Nikolaev, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava - with an estimated pre-war population of over 5.6 million people. At the same time, since the liberation of Kherson by the Ukrainian Defense Forces in 2022, Russia has not captured a single regional center in Ukraine.