As rumors about the deteriorating health of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov intensify, along with speculation that he intends to step down from power, the question of who will succeed him is increasingly being raised, News.bg reports.
According to the British newspaper The Times, Kadyrov hopes that his post will be taken over by his third son - 17-year-old Adam, known for his aggressive behavior, passion for luxury cars and arrogant manner.
In recent months, Adam has received a number of official positions, including the post of secretary of the Security Council of the Chechen Republic. However, according to sources of The Times, during his last meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin last month in Moscow, Kadyrov faced a categorical refusal from the Kremlin to support the idea of his son succeeding him.
The issue of succession is of key importance both for Kadyrov himself, who seeks security for his family, and for the Kremlin, which wants to guarantee stability in the region. Chechnya remains a particularly sensitive area for Russia, after two devastating wars broke out there in the 1990s.
Kadyrov has repeatedly hinted at a possible resignation - at least five times so far. However, analysts often see these statements as a tactical move aimed at the Kremlin and the Chechen people urging him to stay.
According to Professor Emil Aslan, an expert on the region at Charles University in Prague, this time Kadyrov's intentions appear serious, prompted by a seriously deteriorating health. According to Novaya Gazeta Evropa, Kadyrov was diagnosed with acute pancreatic necrosis back in 2019, but in recent months his condition has worsened, developing severe kidney failure and fluid accumulation in the lungs.
In an attempt to refute these rumors, the Chechen leader has posted videos of himself lifting weights or wrestling in a gym. However, it has been noted on social networks that the weights used are very light - only 7 or 14 kilograms. In addition, his appearance has changed noticeably - his face looks puffy, his speech is slurred, and his movements are uncertain.
Prof. Aslan believes that Kadyrov will indeed step down in the near future, but he doubts that Adam will succeed him - at least not immediately. The young man began to appear in public in 2023, when he was filmed abusing a prisoner - footage that caused outrage. Since then, his father has been actively promoting him.
“The decisive factor is the Kremlin - and the Kremlin does not want Adam“, Aslan says. “They have nothing against Chechnya remaining under the rule of the Kadyrov clan, but their main priority is stability, and Adam cannot guarantee it.“
A more realistic scenario, according to the expert, is the appointment of a kind of “regent“, who would rule until he reached the required age of 30 to hold the presidency. This was also the case with Kadyrov himself, who after the assassination of his father Akhmad Kadyrov in 2004 - at the age of only 27 - initially became deputy prime minister and later prime minister, while the post of president was temporarily occupied by General Alu Alkhanov.
Two names are mentioned today among the most likely interim rulers. The first is Adam Delimkhanov (55), a distant relative and close ally of Kadyrov, known for his ties to organized crime and suspicions of involvement in contract killings, including that of opposition figure Boris Nemtsov.
The second potential candidate is Apti Alaudinov (51), commander of the special unit "Akhmat", which participated in the war in Ukraine. Unlike the noisy Kadyrov and those around him, Alaudinov is moderate, well-educated and a good speaker.
A report by the Israeli Center for Strategic Studies "Begin-Sadat" predicts that in the event of Kadyrov's death, power could be shared between several key figures, with Moscow playing the role of arbitrator. At the same time, the report emphasizes that "given the personal characteristics of these individuals and their propensity for violence, the sustainability of such a model seems doubtful".