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ISW: Russian Army boasts of offensive operations in Dnipropetrovsk region

Data shows artillery missions in the area and does not contradict official Ukrainian claims about ongoing fighting in Donetsk region east of the border

Jun 9, 2025 17:23 372

ISW: Russian Army boasts of offensive operations in Dnipropetrovsk region  - 1

On June 8, Kremlin and Russian Defense Ministry (MOD) officials announced that Russian forces were conducting offensive operations in Dnipropetrovsk region.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev threatened those who do not recognize the current "realities of war" on the battlefield that during negotiations, they will "get new realities on the ground".

This is what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes.

ISW has seen no evidence of these claims of progress near the border with Dnipropetrovsk region.

In November 2024 predicts that the Russian military command may advance to the far southeast to cut Ukrainian ground communication lines that support Ukrainian positions in the Donetsk region and to encircle these Ukrainian positions.

The spokesman for the Ukrainian group of forces "Khortytsia" Colonel Viktor Tregubov said on June 8 that fighting was continuing in the direction of Novopavlovka, but only in the Donetsk region. The spokesman for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the area said that Russian forces had not crossed the border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

The Ukrainian newspaper "Suspilne" reported that the representative of the Ukrainian General Staff Andriy Kovalev said that the claims that Russian forces had crossed the border were "Russian disinformation" and are not true.

The FIRMS (US Penal Resource Management Program) data show satellite-detected thermal and infrared anomalies along the border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, and satellite imagery collected on June 7 and 8 shows the appearance of new artillery craters near the border in Dnipropetrovsk region.

The data show artillery missions in the area and do not contradict official Ukrainian statements about ongoing fighting in Donetsk region east of the border.

ISW assesses that the current Russian tactical activity near southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region is a continuation of ongoing Russian offensive efforts in southwestern Donetsk region, and not the beginning of a new major offensive operation to seize operationally significant territory in Dnipropetrovsk region. ISW will continue to assess the situation in the southeastern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and update its assessment.

In May 2025, ISW reported that Russia was setting conditions for establishing permanent control over the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZAPP), suggesting that it may be planning to occupy and annex Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

The Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Presidential Administration, Colonel Pavlo Palisa, also stated on June 5 that Russia intended to occupy all of Ukraine on the eastern (left) bank of the Dnieper River, including eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by the end of 2026.

Russia continued to baselessly accuse Ukraine of failing to repatriate the bodies of soldiers killed in action, part of the Kremlin's efforts to undermine mutually agreed confidence-building measures with Ukraine. The Russian First Deputy Head of the Information Department of the Main Directorate (GRU) of the General Staff, Lieutenant General Alexander Zorin, stated on June 8 that Russia had handed over the bodies of 1,212 killed Ukrainians to an exchange point in accordance with the alleged agreements reached during Ukrainian-Russian talks in Istanbul on June 2.

Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a chemical plant in the Tula region on June 8. The head of the Ukrainian Center for Combating Disinformation, Lieutenant General Andriy Kovalenko, who often reports on successful Ukrainian drone strikes against Russia, hinted on June 8 that Ukrainian forces had carried out a drone strike on the Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula region.

Kovalenko said that the plant produces explosives for artillery shells, bombs and missiles. The Russian opposition newspaper Astra released footage of fires at the plant after reports of drone strikes.

Tula Oblast Governor Dmitry Milyaev said on June 8 that a Ukrainian drone had crashed on the territory of the Azot plant, causing a fire.

Ukrainian forces had previously carried out a drone strike on the Azot plant on May 24.