It seems that the Kremlin is trying to leverage the prospect of bilateral arms control talks with the US to extract preemptive concessions from them regarding the war in Ukraine.
This is stated in the analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
On June 9, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov answered a question about the termination of Russia's moratorium on the deployment of ground-based missiles banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
Putin's voice emphasized that Russia retains "freedom of action" - echoing Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov's June 7 statement that Russia's "unilateral moratorium" on the deployment of such missiles was coming to its "logical end."
On June 9, Ryabkov said that Russia and the United States needed a "reliable ... military-political basis" to resume arms control talks, and that the United States must be ready to respect Russia's "core interests" in order to normalize bilateral relations.
Ryabkov said that the United States' actions regarding the war in Ukraine could show the seriousness of the White House's intentions to improve relations with Russia. On June 9, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also said that the Kremlin would be ready to resume strategic stability talks with the United States when discussions are on an equal footing.
Kremlin officials appear to be arguing that Russia's readiness to participate in future arms control talks with the United States depends on whether Russia receives preemptive concessions from the United States over the war in Ukraine. Russia has notably violated the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty by developing, testing, and deploying intermediate-range missiles, prompting the United States to suspend its participation in the treaty in February 2019.
In early 2025, ISW assessed that Russia is using economic incentives unrelated to the war in Ukraine to extract concessions from the United States on the war in Ukraine, and Russia's use of incentives related to arms control negotiations appears to be the latest manifestation of this common effort.
Western security officials continue to believe that Russia is preparing for a prolonged confrontation with NATO. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on June 9 that intelligence estimates show Russia will produce 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander missiles by 2025.
It is unclear whether these vehicle production estimates refer only to new vehicle production in Russia or include vehicles from Russia's Soviet-era stockpile that Russia is upgrading. Rutte said Russia is cooperating with China, North Korea and Iran and that Moscow is rebuilding its forces with Chinese technology.
Mark Rutte announced that on June 5, NATO defense ministers agreed to increase spending on air and missile defense by 400% to protect themselves from large-scale drone and missile strikes like those Russia is carrying out against Ukraine.
Rutte also said that Moscow could be capable of launching military operations against NATO within five years.
ISW estimates that Russia does not need to rebuild its forces to pre-2022 levels before it poses a threat to NATO countries, and could launch military operations against a NATO country before 2030.