Israel-Iran War Could Be Great News for Vladimir Putin

Israel’s attack on Iran is a double dose of good news for the Kremlin, writes The Spectator.

Years of two-way diplomacy have allowed Vladimir Putin to position himself as a friend of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Iranian leadership. This will make Russia an indispensable partner for the United States as it begins the long process of patching up the new political realities in the Middle East after that war. Although Israeli jets have so far studiously avoided striking Iranian oil export infrastructure, the war has inevitably unsettled markets and boosted falling crude prices, and with them Putin’s military budget.

During three months of fruitless negotiations with the Trump administration to end the war in Ukraine, Russian negotiators have always insisted that Ukraine is just one part of a global package of military, economic, and political issues where Washington’s core interests may align with Moscow’s. Now it has. After the Israeli strikes, Putin was the only world leader to speak on the phone with Netanyahu, Iranian President Masoud Peshmerga and Donald Trump.

Thanks to Israel’s devastating military strikes, Washington now faces a multi-dimensional challenge as it tries to simultaneously prevent a global oil price shock, a bilateral war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and retaliatory strikes on American military and civilian targets by Iranian agents or proxies. Russia, with its military and diplomatic ties to Tehran, will inevitably be part of this diplomatic balance. Suddenly, pressuring the Kremlin to end its operations in Ukraine seems like a small thing compared to preventing the entire Middle East from burning.

Russia has been portraying itself as an ally of Iran lately. Immediately after the Israeli strikes, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a scathing statement condemning the attacks as “categorically unacceptable” and warned that "all the consequences of this provocation will fall on the Israeli leadership". Moscow also called on both sides "to exercise restraint in order to prevent further escalation of tensions and prevent the region from descending into a full-scale war".

But this alliance of convenience in the Kremlin's eyes is very secondary to Russia's more important role as a global player, able to stand alongside the US and China as an arbiter of world affairs. Putin may have signed a treaty for "comprehensive strategic partnership" with Iranian President Pezeshkian in January, but he has his sights set on a much bigger diplomatic prize: strengthening his own position as a mediator in the Middle East.

In his conversation with Netanyahu, Putin "underlined the importance of returning to the negotiation process and resolving all issues related to the Iranian nuclear program exclusively through political and diplomatic means". He also offered his mediation "in order to prevent further escalation of tensions", the Kremlin said in a statement.

In his conversation with Trump on Saturday, Putin also signaled Russia's readiness to make "mediation efforts to de-escalate the crisis" - and reminded Trump that Russia has actually been a long-time US ally during years of negotiations with the Iranians over their nuclear program.

Moscow's relations with the Islamic Republic have always been highly volatile. In the 1990s, Moscow helped Iran develop its first long-range "Shehab" ballistic missiles and build its first civilian nuclear reactor at Bushehr, which went into operation in 2013. Russia and Iran have joined forces to support the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, with Russia sending warplanes in 2015. Moscow has also supplied S-300 air defense missile systems and imported thousands of Shahed drones, which it has fired indiscriminately into Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Moscow signed the 2015 U.S.-brokered nuclear deal with Iran, which Trump pulled out of two years later. This year, Moscow offered to take on the enrichment of Iranian nuclear fuel as part of a possible updated nuclear deal. The arrangement would allow Iran to maintain a civilian nuclear energy program while denying it any opportunity to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels. Despite the declared alliance, Russia has also been holding back on selling Iran advanced Su-35 fighter jets that could counter Israeli aircraft in the air. In return, Israel has refused to provide Ukraine with weapons despite Kiev’s strong pleas.

Immediately after Israel’s attack, oil prices jumped from below $60 to $75 a barrel as nervous traders feared disruption to Iran’s ability to export crude. However, it soon emerged that Israeli warplanes had not struck key infrastructure at Iran's largest oil terminal on Kharg Island, and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf appeared to be normal. Instead, Israel targeted Iran's domestic energy industry, including gas refineries and gas stations across the country - perhaps in an attempt to trigger price hikes that have in the past sparked anti-government protests.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Twitter that the US was "working closely with the National Security Council to monitor the ongoing situation in the Middle East and any potential impacts on global energy supplies". Decoded, this means that Washington will insist that Israel not attack Kharg to avoid catastrophic damage to the economy of Iran's main customer, China. At the same time, Israel keeps in its back pocket the option of escalating the attack on oil infrastructure while negotiating with both its enemies and allies.

All this is good news for the Kremlin, which has been facing the prospect of falling oil prices widening the deficit and stretching the budget. The great conflagration in the Middle East promises to occupy the bandwidth of the world's media, and with it the attention of voters and politicians. The world's attention to Ukraine will weaken, wrote on Twitter pro-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov. “War between Israel and Iran will help the success of the Russian army in Ukraine“.

In the negative part of the table, it is reported that Israeli warplanes blew up the Iranian drone factory “Shahed” in Isfahan, just days after Ukrainian long-range drones damaged a Russian factory in Elabuga that produces its own clones of the "Shahed", known as "Geran". That will reduce Moscow's ability to continue its nightly swarm attacks on Ukrainian cities, which have deployed up to 450 "Shahed" drones in a single wave. But overall, it's a small price to pay for a conflict that suits the Kremlin to the core.

Last month, the Trump administration made Putin what seemed like a great offer: to cash in on its gains and end its assault on Ukraine with a de facto border along the current line of control and a promise that Kiev would never join NATO. But Putin refused. Many observers were left puzzled as to why. Now the picture is becoming a little clearer. With each new conflict — especially a major conflagration in the Middle East — the significance of the war in Ukraine for the West diminishes a little. And the more opportunities Putin has to use Russia’s diplomatic clout and help Washington and Beijing solve global problems, the further he moves away from the role of warmonger and toward the desired role of senior international statesman.

There’s no way Putin could have foreseen Israel’s full-scale attack on Iran months ago when he began stalling Trump’s peace deal. But he’s always had the devil’s luck.