"We didn't leave the city because there was nowhere to go", writes Hasti from Tehran. The young woman lives with her parents and has rarely left her apartment in recent days. Because no one knows which building will be hit next by an Israeli missile. “Many people left the city because of the danger, but now they have returned because they have to work”.
After 12 days of intense exchange of blows between Iran and Israel, US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire that began on the night of June 24. However, the blows continued in both directions in the following hours. Later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would honor the ceasefire.
Disappointment and impasse
Martial law was never declared in Iran. There are no official practices in case of an air attack. Large cities like Tehran have no warning systems, no shelters. The people's disappointment is enormous: "International law cannot be relied upon," Iman from Tehran told DW. "My country has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and voluntarily declared that it will not develop nuclear weapons. And yet we were attacked by a country that had not signed this agreement, and that while a diplomatic process was underway." The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty was signed during the Cold War by the then nuclear powers - the United States and the Soviet Union. Israel is not a party to the treaty.
Iman has not left his home in Tehran. Life under rocket fire is no stranger to him. He also remembers the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. "I am apolitical," he says, but he also emphasizes: "I do not agree with the policies of our government. I know that Israel is a sovereign state and I respect the rights of all its citizens. At the same time, I condemn this military attack on my country." In this situation, however, Iman says that he cannot support those who call themselves the "Iranian opposition." "They only harm our national interests," Iman believes. The people he is referring to are Iranian dissidents who live outside the country and openly call for regime change in Tehran.
Critics in exile are also uncertain
The difficult situation is also being assessed by the exiled opposition community. “These are difficult times. At first I thought it was not our job to talk about this issue, because it is not us, but our compatriots who are living in war conditions at home”, London-based doctor Shahram Kordasti told DW. The hematologist has started a campaign on social media in which, together with other doctors, he makes suggestions for treating oncological diseases for those people who do not have access to drugs - which is the case for many Iranians.
“Now many people in Iran tell me that they prefer a terrible end to endless horror. This system must end. At the same time, however, I see that some people are very disappointed and even defend the regime, which surprises me,” Kordasti says. “The truth is that I also wonder what the path for Iran to become a free and democratic country should be and whether this is even possible without military intervention. Germany was liberated from the Nazis by military force.”
"You can be against the regime and against the war at the same time"
Many of the opposition in Iran also oppose military intervention. "I am sure that a war will not bring democracy, human rights or freedom," said Iranian Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi. She called on the UN to take action on the "flagrant and reckless violation of international law."
"You can be against the regime and against the war at the same time," says women's rights activist Ghazal Abdollahi. She lives in Berlin. She says she is worried about the fate of political prisoners in Iran. On June 23, Israel also attacked Evin prison in Tehran, where political prisoners and opposition figures are being held. "The prisoners have not had the opportunity to contact their relatives since the beginning of the war. They are locked up there, and now they are being bombed," says Abdollahi. "No one is thinking about the civilians."
Fears of unrest
Pressure on civilians and opposition figures in Iran may increase after the war. Many fear that after four decades of political unrest and international sanctions, the people are no longer strong enough to endure another round of bombing. The Iranian diaspora now faces a moral dilemma, says Rima Shirmohammadi, a women's rights activist living in Spain. "Some Iranian women may be happy that government buildings are being hit by missiles. At the same time, others warn against underestimating the humanitarian situation and the needs of civilians."
The West seems divided on its stance on Iran. A coherent strategy for possible regime change is lacking. Perhaps because plans for “regime change” in other countries in the region have failed so spectacularly.
Author: Shabnam von Hein