The escalation in the Middle East is also reflected in the markets. A number of indices and stocks are falling, while the price of oil is rising. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for longer, global inflation would rise significantly.
If the conflict in the Middle East continues for longer, pressure on stock markets will increase, oil prices and inflation will increase, and government bond yields could fall, Ulrich Steffen, chief investment strategist for private and corporate clients at "Deutsche Bank", told German public media ARD.
It's already a fact: oil is rising
The effects of the escalation of tension in the Middle East are already clearly felt in the price of oil. On Monday morning, it rose by more than seven percent and reached its highest level in months.
The price of a barrel of Brent crude from the North Sea reached $82.37 - the most expensive crude oil since January 2025. And that of light US oil WTI temporarily rose to $75.33, reaching its highest value since June 2025.
Investors fear that supplies will be disrupted due to measures taken by Iran, which has banned ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz and has already fired on three oil tankers - American and British. As a result, there has been a cluster of ships that are blocked in the strait area.
About a fifth of global oil transport passes through the Strait of Hormuz daily. Any disruption could lead to a rise in energy prices and bring uncertainty to international markets.
The crucial question for the global economy is now clear, notes Holger Schmieding, chief economist at private bank "Berenberg". "Will the Strait of Hormuz be closed to oil and gas exports for more than a few weeks? If the answer to that question is yes, it would affect global growth and significantly increase global inflation," the expert said.
Currently, experts at Citigroup expect the price of Brent to trade between $80 and $90 per barrel this week. Against this background, OPEC+ countries decided on Sunday to slightly increase production. The increase in production, however, was not explained by the latest events in the Near and Middle East, but by the stable outlook for global economic development and low oil reserves.
What does this mean for consumers?
The rise in oil prices will also lead to higher prices at gas stations. And when energy prices rise, this also affects the production of all products, including food, the German public media outlet points out.
If the trend of rising oil prices proves sustainable, consumer prices in general will likely rise and this will lead to rising inflation around the world, points out market analyst Jens Klatt. The energy-intensive industry will also suffer from high energy prices, the expert adds.
How did the stock markets react?
The attacks by Israel and the US against Iran began on Saturday morning, February 28, when major stock exchanges around the world were closed. The first reactions are now being observed. On Monday morning, Germany's leading stock index DAX fell by 2.3 percent to around 24,700 points. Almost all shares in it recorded a decline in value. The exception is Rheinmetall, which rose by more than four percent. Shares of other arms companies are also in demand.
The French CAC 40 index also recorded a decline of 2.3 percent, and the EuroStoxx 50 fell by 2.4 percent. Leading indices in Austria, Switzerland and Italy also fell by more than two percent.
While the situation on the stock exchanges in China remained relatively calm, the Nikkei index in Tokyo fell by almost 1.5 percent. The country is particularly dependent on oil imports, so a price shock would hit the Japanese economy particularly hard, writes ARD.
At the moment, airline shares are falling the most. The reason: several central airports are closed. Airports in the Persian Gulf serve as hubs for Asian air traffic, and the consequences affect connections and airlines around the world.
Shares in Cathay Pacific, Qantas Airways, Singapore Airlines and Japan Airlines fell by more than five percent. At Qantas, losses were even temporarily over 10 percent.
The price of gold is rising
As often happens in times of crisis, investments considered safer are now being relied on. Currently, the price of gold is going up again, with an ounce trading for over $5,340.
The US currency is also rising. This, in turn, is affecting the prices of oil and other raw materials, the ARD publication also says.