Russia is short of women, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently said during a meeting to discuss the low birth rate. But is the number of women really small and is this the main demographic problem in the fourth year of Russia's war against Ukraine?
Russia is really short of women?
The problem named by Putin is that the number of women of childbearing age in Russia has decreased, which is why the birth rate has fallen, demography experts Alexei Raksha and Vladimir Kozlov told DW. According to Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova, there are currently 34 million women of childbearing age in Russia, and by 2046 their number will decrease to 27 million. The newspaper “Tagesspiegel”, for its part, wrote in June 2023 that even according to official data, which are considered to be underestimated according to independent estimates, in 2022 the population of Russia decreased by at least 524,000 people - to 146.6 million.
Demographers point out that this development was expected. Alexey Raksha's opinion is that the current situation in Russia is “an echo of the 1990s”, when a “demographic pit” arose and because of it today there are neither women nor men enough. “From 1998 to 1999 the number of newborns in Russia has decreased by half. It turns out that women aged 26 are about half as many as 38-year-olds. But the same applies to men. That is why the number of newborns is at a record low for the last 225 years."
The impact of the war on the demographic situation
As early as the spring of 2022, shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Western observers predicted that the war would have dramatic consequences for the demographic situation in both countries. However, demographers Raksha and Kozlov note that the decisive factor for the current negative demographic situation in Russia is not the mass death of Russians in the war.
„Demography consists of three blocks: birth rate, mortality rate and migration. The war affected mortality and migration - the life expectancy of men was shortened by about two years. In addition, hundreds of thousands left the country. But there is no question of a major impact of the war on the birth rate," says Alexey Raksha.
Vladimir Kozlov is of the same opinion. "The war has affected the demographic situation in Russia to some extent. But the decrease in the number of newborns is not a reflection of the war - it is simply a structure."
Experts from the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation, in turn, noted in a study that "historical events, such as war and mass migration, always affect the structure of the population. This rule is confirmed by the war in Ukraine and the refugee flows after February 24, 2022, but the demographic failure that has occurred fits into the long-term trend. According to forecasts by the International Labor Organization, by 2025 the population of Russia will decrease to 130 million people. That is, "The changes in the Russian population are analogous to trends in Europe."
"Some were scared, others were excited"
Vladimir Kozlov says that during the war, the birth rate in Russia was approximately at the same level. "Now it is gradually falling, but whether this is related to the war or not is a big question. A study published in the journal "Demographic Research", which raises the question of whether Russians are ready to give birth against the background of such a shock, says that two trends compensated for each other: part of the population was scared, but another part was excited (for example, thanks to various payments). That is why the number of newborns during the war did not decrease for a long time."
Alexey Raksha, on the other hand, noted that "there is no way to understand the data on mortality and migration of the population in Russia since March 2025" - given that access to these data was closed. Back in May, the Telegram channel "Demography from Raksha" pointed out that Rosstat hid data on the number of births and deaths in the country for March, including by region.
Will schoolgirls giving birth be able to save the demographic situation in Russia?
Demographers are categorical that many of the measures adopted in Russia to reverse the birth rate trend, in particular propaganda among high school and university students, are not only ineffective, but may also have the opposite effect.
„Attempts to rejuvenate the birth rate are useless. Schoolgirls account for less than 0.5 percent of all births. And attempts to ban or limit abortions, as we see from the situation in other countries, also do not work and do not affect the birth rate," Raksha states.
Experts do not consider it advisable to provide economic incentives for the birth of a first child - Russians plan it anyway, even if they postpone it for later. “It would be more sensible to provide a large lump sum payment from the second child onwards. As data from the period between 2007 and 2022 show, when, thanks to material incentives, between 2 and 2.5 million second and subsequent children were born, who would not have been born without this measure,” explains Raksha.
According to Russian government data, in 2026 the number of Russian women between 20 and 29 years old will be 7.18 million - a record low. And only by 2038 will it increase to 9.38 million. Then an increase in births can already be expected, experts suggest.
Author: Alexandra Ivanova