Eighty years after the United States dropped the atomic bomb on Hiroshima, the world is once again facing alarmingly growing nuclear risks. Today's global environment is characterized by a series of crises in which nuclear powers increasingly find themselves on both sides of conflicts, reports Focus.
US President Donald Trump's recent decision to deploy two nuclear submarines in "appropriate regions" in response to a social media post by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev may not lead to an immediate escalation, but it serves as a reminder: nuclear weapons remain a permanent and dangerous part of the modern world.
Nuclear Fronts: From Europe to Asia
Today, nuclear-armed states are embroiled in conflicts on several continents, from Europe to the Himalayas to the Korean Peninsula. Israel and the United States struck Iran's nuclear program last June, but the possibility that Tehran could rebuild it and pursue nuclear weapons remains real.
With frozen arms control negotiations, it is imperative to find ways to reduce tensions between nuclear powers and build mechanisms for conflict management.
Different conflicts, common risk
No two conflicts are identical. In Europe, Russia has repeatedly used nuclear threats to deter US and NATO intervention in its war with Ukraine. In Asia, a terrorist attack in Kashmir in April led to a new escalation between India and Pakistan, raising fears of an out-of-control war.
Nevertheless, the logic of nuclear deterrence is working for now. Russia has avoided actions that would draw NATO directly into the war, and India and Pakistan have demonstrated an understanding of the “rules of the game” by keeping their conflicts below the nuclear threshold.
The nuclear threshold remains uncertain
Despite current restrictions, there is no guarantee that nuclear powers will not cross red lines, either intentionally or by mistake. An example of this is the militarization of Europe with growing NATO forces and Russia’s response in the form of nuclear war.
In exchange for North Korea’s support for the war in Ukraine, Russia has effectively stopped all cooperation with the United States on the North Korean nuclear program. Russian technical assistance risks making Pyongyang even more dangerous.
The crumbling non-proliferation regime
The existing nuclear non-proliferation regime has played a key role in global security, but its effectiveness is now questionable. The great powers are often moving in opposite directions, making control mechanisms increasingly useless.
That is why it is essential that nuclear states, especially the United States, take concrete steps to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. This means not only controlling nuclear arsenals, but also dealing with political and conventional tensions that could lead to catastrophe.
Need for new channels of communication
The lesson of the Cold War is clear: open channels of communication between nuclear powers can save the world. While the United States and Russia still maintain some contacts, including for prisoner exchanges, formal military lines between NATO and Moscow are absent.
In South Asia, although military channels between India and Pakistan are functioning, distrust remains high. Creating new lines of communication between political leaders and national security advisers could prevent future crises.
Long-term vision: support for global institutions
International mechanisms such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) need to be strengthened. Iran’s aggressive attitude towards the agency is a sign of its eroding legitimacy. It is therefore important that voices from the Global South support the apolitical nature of the IAEA and the norms of non-proliferation.
In 2022, G20 leaders, coordinated by Indonesia, clearly stated that “the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is unacceptable“. This position must be reaffirmed, especially with the upcoming Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons next year.
The world today faces a complex and dangerous nuclear reality. Nuclear weapons are not just symbols of power, but potential engines of catastrophe. Now more than ever, responsible diplomacy, open communication and international cooperation are needed to preserve the fragile peace and prevent a repeat of the horror of Hiroshima.