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What is the state of Ukraine and Russia after four years of war

Since 2022, Kiev's military efforts have been largely guaranteed by the supply of Western weapons and ammunition and the sharing of Western intelligence

Feb 23, 2026 20:39 48

What is the state of Ukraine and Russia after four years of war  - 1

The war in Ukraine, which began with the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, is entering its fifth year. This is where the bloodiest conflict on European territory since World War II has reached after four years of fighting, destruction, but also diplomatic efforts.

Human losses

After years of deadly battles and bombings, the number of victims on both sides is still not known for sure. According to the latest UN count in 2025, nearly 15,000 civilians were killed and 40,600 wounded on Ukrainian territory, but the actual number is likely to be significantly higher, particularly because of the difficult access to the occupied areas.

Retaliatory attacks by Ukraine on Russian border areas have killed hundreds of people, according to estimates.

Militarily, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged in early February that 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died since 2022, a figure widely believed to be an undercount due to thousands of missing servicemen.

Russia has been tight-lipped about its military losses, but they have amounted to more than 177,000, according to the BBC Russian Service and the Russian media outlet "Mediazona", which rely on sources. open access.

The American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies has mentioned up to 325,000 Russian soldiers killed and between 100,000 and 140,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed by 2022.

Nearly 6 million Ukrainians have left the country since the start of the war, according to UN data.

Destruction

The war has devastated vast areas, mainly in eastern Ukraine, where entire cities such as Bakhmut, Toretsk or Vovchansk have been reduced to rubble. Russian strikes on energy infrastructure have devastated the Ukrainian energy grid, depriving millions of people of heating and electricity. About 20 percent of Ukraine's territory is strewn with mines, according to the United Nations.

The total cost of rebuilding Ukraine is estimated at more than 500 billion euros over the coming decades, according to a joint assessment by the Ukrainian government, the EU, the World Bank and the United Nations.

State of the Front

After significant movements by both Russian and Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023, the conflict has become a war of attrition, with the military advancing slowly and costing them dearly under the ever-present threat of drones.

Russia occupies nearly 20 percent of Ukraine's territory, with a third of that already under the control of Russian or pro-Russian forces before 2022.

The bulk of the fighting is taking place in the Donbass, a large industrial basin in eastern Ukraine. There, Russian forces have seized almost all of Luhansk Oblast and about 83 percent of Donetsk Oblast, according to an Agence France-Presse analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank.

The Russian military also occupies large swathes of southern Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts and small areas in northern Sumy Oblast, northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and central Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Slow diplomacy

Despite the ongoing fighting, Russians and Ukrainians have been negotiating since 2025 for a ceasefire, instigated by US President Donald Trump. Several rounds of talks have been held in Istanbul, Abu Dhabi and Geneva, without producing any tangible progress. One of the key issues is the issue of territory. Russia wants Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the areas it still controls in Donetsk Oblast. Kiev refuses to do so. Ukraine has also insisted on the need for a ceasefire as soon as possible, while Moscow has refused any pause in the fighting until the foundations of a lasting peace agreement are established.

Economy and sanctions

The Russian economy has weathered Western sanctions by finding parallel import networks and reorienting its hydrocarbon sales to other markets. The industry has benefited from massive military orders. But the Russian economy is still showing signs of suffocation, facing a persistent labor shortage and high inflation. The Russian state must also cope with a growing budget deficit and declining revenues from the oil industry.

Ukraine lost nearly a third of its GDP in 2022 and is suffering from the destruction of its infrastructure, the disruption of its exports, and the fact that many people of working age have gone abroad or been mobilized into the army. The Ukrainian economy has since recovered somewhat, but the country is heavily dependent on Western support to finance its defense and current expenditures.

Allies and Supporters

Since 2022, Kiev's military efforts have been largely underpinned by the supply of Western weapons and ammunition and the sharing of Western intelligence. Europe is now the main source of aid to Ukraine, with 201 billion euros provided so far and another 178 billion euros pledged, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany.

Since Donald Trump’s return to power, the United States, which has provided Ukraine with $115 billion since 2022, has effectively suspended its grant aid to Kiev.

According to the Kiel Institute, Ukraine has received from its allies nearly 900 tanks, 1,200 armored vehicles, 850 artillery systems, 85 anti-aircraft systems, as well as combat aircraft and ammunition.

North Korea has provided Russia with ammunition and sent thousands of its soldiers to fight on Russian territory against the Ukrainians.

Moscow has also received drones and missiles from Iran and used its technology to produce its own drone models, according to Western sources, who also accuse China of helping Moscow circumvent sanctions.

Translated from French: Gabriela Golemanska, BTA