If the elections were in mid-February, the formula for entering the National Assembly is 5 plus 2, i.e. five formations could be confident of their seats in parliament, and two more have real prospects of being in it.
The conclusion is from the independent monthly research program of the sociological agency “Measure“. The study was conducted in the period 9-15 February 2026 using the “face to face“ method with tablets among 812 adult Bulgarian citizens.
51.5% is the declaration of activity, which means - with all the conditionalities - the possibility of a significant transition of three million voters. 1.5% of all those who declare that they will vote intend to vote with “I do not support anyone“.
The declarative support among those who declare that they will vote for a certain party and coalition is as follows: Rumen Radev's formation has 33.3%, GERB-SDS - 18.9%, PP-DB - 12.7%, DPS-NN - 10.7%, “Vazrazhdane“ - 6.8%. MECH receives 3.9%, BSP - 3.7% and 2.3% for “Velicie“. For ITN and APS they say they will vote, respectively - 2.1% and 1.9%. The remaining votes are for other smaller formations.
The data, of course, is not a forecast for the election result, but a snapshot with many unknowns. The field was during the height of the “Petrohan“ scandal, and could only partially reflect the impact of the election of Krum Zarkov as chairman of the BSP.
The data is from an independent study from the regular research program of the sociological agency “Myara“. The study was conducted “face to face“ with tablets between February 9 and 15, 2026 among 812 adult Bulgarian citizens. The maximum standard deviation is ±3.5 at 50% shares. 1% of the entire sample equals about 54,000 people.