Whether Iran's attack on Israel is the single attack or the start of a new war – it very much depends on how Israel will respond.
This is what international security expert Assoc. Iskren Ivanov told Euronews Bulgaria.
For me, there are two options: one option is for Israel to bet on a conventional strategy. That will happen if the conservative wing in Netanyahu's government presses for a broader response. This could ignite a larger war in the Middle East.
The second option is for Israel to bet on an asymmetric strategy - let's say, with cyber attacks. The IDF has a whole set of tools with which it can do this.
In my opinion, we are approaching the second scenario, because there is already pressure from the US and not only. The entire international community does not want escalation because it means a second front. The first is Ukraine, now the Middle East if it burns – the crisis becomes global.
Perhaps Iran and Israel will try to “export“ the conflict in Gaza or in some other region, but we should not rule out the first scenario either, because when you are in a coalition with ultra-conservative Hasidim, sometimes the question of responding or not is a question of political survival.
What is unique about this crisis is that it is not reminiscent of previous ones in this region. We have a confrontation between Israel and Iran, but this anti-Israel coalition involves non-state actors – Hamas, Hezbollah, “Muslim Brotherhood”... All cross-border terrorist networks are currently fighting alongside Iran against Israel.
I do not rule out the first scenario, because Israel realizes that the psychological effect is very important. But without the support of the US, it is quite possible that at some point Netanyahu himself will make a compromise.
Note that the US president says “we are firmly on the side of Israel”, but nowhere mentions Netanyahu.