The news that the expected meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin has been put on hold has somewhat reassured Ukraine's allies in the EU. They were rightly worried that the most Russia-friendly country in the bloc (Hungary - ed.) would be hosting talks that directly affect the security of the Old Continent.
According to information from the Reuters agency, Russia has sent the US an informal letter with its terms for a peace agreement with Ukraine, in which it insists on its maximum demands so far. In it, Moscow confirms its demand for control over the entire Donbas region, as well as for a refusal to deploy NATO troops in Ukraine. Thus, the Kremlin is de facto rejecting Trump's proposal to freeze the front line along its current length.
Summits are coming up in Brussels and London, which will test Europe - can it really provide the necessary support to Kiev and convince Trump to finally push Moscow to the wall. "Russia's stalling tactics show again and again that only Ukraine really wants peace. We see that Putin continues to choose violence and destruction&rdquo, said a joint statement by the leaders of Ukraine, Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Finland, Denmark, Spain and Sweden, as well as the heads of European institutions. It also says it is time to use frozen Russian assets for Kiev's needs.
"There is no place in Europe for war criminals"
EU countries have been insisting that they must have a seat at the negotiating table for Ukraine's future, but they certainly never imagined that the table in question would be in Budapest. If such a meeting ever takes place, it would be the first time Putin has set foot in the European Union since he launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and since the International Criminal Court ordered his arrest for war crimes. "The only place for Putin in Europe is The Hague - in front of the tribunal. Not in our capitals," said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budris. "There is no place in Europe for war criminals," he added. Similar comments were made by most EU diplomats.
Hungary, however, was delighted with its potential role as host. Prime Minister Viktor Orban wrote in X that the country was the "only suitable" place in Europe for talks on the future of Ukraine, because of its "pro-peace" stance. Budapest's habit of delaying or watering down sanctions against Russia and its anti-Ukrainian stance lead to other conclusions, says political scientist Reinhard Heinisch. "Many in the EU consider Orban a Trojan horse for Russian interests," the expert says. In his opinion, more suitable locations for future peace talks are, for example, Switzerland or Saudi Arabia.
Can Putin be arrested on European soil
Under international law, Hungary is still technically obliged to arrest Vladimir Putin if he is on its territory. Although Budapest announced it was leaving the International Criminal Court (ICC) in June, on paper Hungary is obliged to respect its jurisdiction. "States have an obligation to respect the court's jurisdiction for one year after leaving, which includes arresting suspects for whom an arrest warrant is issued", explains Matthias Holvoet, a lecturer in international law at the University of Amsterdam.
However, according to the expert, there is no real prospect of such a thing happening. Hungary has already defied the ICC by not arresting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for whom an arrest warrant is also issued. "There are no real consequences expected if states do not respect these arrangements," says Holvoet.
How can Putin even get to Hungary
Putin may be safe on Hungarian soil, but getting there is problematic. Although the European sanctions against him do not include a travel ban within the EU, the EU banned Russian aircraft from entering its airspace in 2022. This means that each member state must decide individually whether to allow Putin's plane through its airspace.
Hungary borders Romania, Slovakia, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia. Romania said it had not received an official request from Moscow for passage. Bulgaria had not received one either, but that did not stop Foreign Minister Georg Georgiev from saying in advance that he would allow Putin to pass through Bulgarian airspace. Serbia would probably prove to be a key corridor - friendly to both Russia and Hungary.
Swallow it with a smile, to please Trump?
Whether Hungary will remain in the spotlight even without such a meeting, or at least not anytime soon, the EU is once again in a familiar situation: trying to reach an understanding with an American president who is often more inclined to work in Russia’s interests, and persuade him to support Ukraine’s security.
Many European leaders are already investing enormous political capital in maintaining good bilateral relations with Trump – from simply swallowing a trade deal that could be described as acceptable at best, to promising to allocate 5% of GDP to defense. Yet they insist on being united around one thing – what is decided at any future meeting on Ukraine is far more important than where it takes place.
Author: Rose Birchard